Why China can’t (or won’t) end the war in Ukraine

The People’s Republic of China has been officially neutral since the beginning of the Russian attack on Ukraine. She abstained from voting in the UN General Assembly. In fact, however, Beijing is on the side of Moscow. State propaganda spreads the Russian narrative that blames the West and NATO for the war.

China is busy buying Russian oil and gas to help Vladimir Putin finance his war. Observers are also increasingly expressing suspicion that Russia is getting help from its main ally in evading Western sanctions. The US government even assumes that China has promised to supply Russia with weapons.

The Washington Post reports this based on an evaluation of the secret documents published on the game platform Discord. Armed aid must be disguised as civilian goods, because open support for the aggressor would make China a party to the war, and Beijing wants to avoid that for several reasons.

risks for China

It is unclear whether the arms deliveries actually take place. An analysis published by the State Department on Wednesday considers such a move a serious possibility, but also mentions the risks. Given the serious shortages in the Russian army, military aid from Beijing could only prolong the war, but not decide it.

It is certain that head of state Xi Jinping, despite his alleged neutrality, makes no secret of his friendship with Putin. So far, however, he has ignored Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj. The last known exchange took place on January 4, 2022, the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations.

time not given

Since then, Xi has spoken to Putin several times by phone and met in person three times. But there was never a conversation with Selenskyj. He is ready to do so when “the circumstances and the time are right,” Xi said during the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Beijing.

Now this was clearly the case. On Wednesday there was a “long and reasonably reasonable conversation”, according to the Ukrainian head of state. The response in the west was positive. The call was “a good thing,” said US State Department spokesman John Kirby. The reactions from Moscow were much more reserved.

crisis instead of war

The talk is linked to the hope that China can help end the fighting. Beijing recently succeeded in bringing about a reconciliation between arch-enemies Iran and Saudi Arabia. Now Li Hui has been appointed as a special envoy. He was ambassador to Moscow and is considered a diplomatic heavyweight, according to the New York Times.

But some analysts question China’s will to end the war. The terms Russia and war are missing from the official account of the talks between Xi and Zelenskyy. Instead, the need for a political solution to the “crisis in Ukraine” was mentioned. China again warned of a nuclear escalation.

The undiplomatic diplomat

Beijing had already published a 12-point “peace plan” in February, making no effort to implement it. Critics suspect one motive behind Xi Jinping’s sudden willingness to talk: the controversial statements made by Lu Shaye, the Chinese ambassador to France, in a televised interview.

The undiplomatic diplomat had questioned the sovereignty of states that had emerged from the Soviet Union. Lu’s statements sparked outrage in Europe and especially in the three Baltic states, prompting the Foreign Ministry in Beijing to emphasize that the status of the former Soviet republics was respected. This also applies to Ukraine.

Wedge between Europe and the US

According to this interpretation, Xi Jinping’s phone call to Volodymyr Zelenskyj was another attempt at damage control. Because China has been trying to maintain good relations with the Europeans lately. There are economic reasons for this, but Beijing also hopes to drive a wedge between Europe and the US, particularly in the Taiwan conflict.

A mediating role in the war in Ukraine would come in handy. At the same time, Xi strives for a ‘multipolar’ world order, with China and Russia as a counterweight to the West and especially the US. It is therefore speculated that Beijing has no interest in Russia emerging from the war weakened or even defeated.

No illusions

The Chinese are under no illusions about their chances of success. “Nobody believes that Russia and Ukraine are ready for talks right now,” Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, told CNN. However, China hopes to expand its diplomatic influence and create goodwill in Europe.

Economic interests can also play a role. Before the war, China was Ukraine’s main trading partner and largest consumer of maize. The lion’s share of exports enabled by the Grains Agreement goes to China. In Kiev, on the other hand, it is hoped that the Chinese will cooperate on a large scale in the reconstruction.

It may be one of the reasons why the Ukrainian government has refrained from criticizing China, despite China’s pro-Russian stance. Now the scales might balance a bit, but it would be presumptuous to hope that the war would end soon. The Ukrainians will not let China stop them from launching their counter-offensive.