What will become of the Ukrainian counter-offensive?

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Almost no ammunition. Almost no fighter jets. Little chance of success. Such, according to the US, is Ukraine’s bleak prospects in this war. They became public through the published Pentagon documents that have been circulating the Internet for a week. The US – Ukraine’s biggest supporter – doubts a successful spring offensive.

The relevant document indicates that Kiev’s strategy is aimed at retaking disputed territories in the east. At the same time, Ukraine will try to move south to tear down Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, the peninsula that Moscow illegally annexed in 2014 and now uses as a supply route for its troops in Ukraine.

The air defense is almost ready

As the “Washington Post” reports based on its own informants, the modest outlook was also confirmed by the National Intelligence Council. This assessment concluded that Ukraine is unlikely to regain as much territory as it did last fall.

One of the documents, dated Feb. 23 and marked “Secret,” describes how Ukraine’s Soviet-era S-300 air defense systems would be exhausted by May 2 in current use.

Ukraine’s Buk air defense systems, which Ukraine relies on along with the S-300, could run into trouble by mid-April, The New York Times reported. And anti-aircraft defenses protecting front-line troops could be “completely reduced” by May 23.

Heavy blow to Ukrainian warfare

The release of sensitive data and assessments is a serious blow to the Ukrainian leadership, both militarily and politically. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak, 51, said it was no coincidence that the publication arrived now before the start of the announced spring offensive. He sees Moscow as the source of the leak.

The Ukrainian government is not changing the planned offensive for the time being – after all, it is disinformation. But falsified information can also get Kiev into trouble. It now seems all the more important that Ukraine can achieve great successes in the upcoming spring offensive.

“There may not be much left after that,” says journalist Neil Hauer Twitter. “The pressure on the Ukrainian General Staff to do something big and successful is huge right now. The last major Ukrainian success, the liberation of Kherson, was five months ago. How long can this go on, with only a slow loss of men and land in the Donbass?”

Source: Blick