Marin, Orpo or Purra? Finland shortly before joining NATO with an election thriller

The conservative National Coalition Party of ex-finance minister and opposition leader Petteri Orpo has a slight preference. In the most recent polls, however, it was only slightly ahead of the right-wing populist party De Finnen and Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s social democrats. In the last parliamentary election in 2019, the three parties were less than one percentage point apart – at that time with the best outcome for the Social Democrats.

Polling stations will be open until 8 p.m. (local time/7 p.m. CEST) on Sunday. Immediately afterwards, a first election trend based on early votes is expected. In the course of the evening, a lot can still happen with these first figures. A provisional end result should be available on Monday evening around midnight.

Marin has been Prime Minister of Finland since the end of 2019. The 37-year-old leads a center-left five-party coalition and is prized by many Finns. Her opponents, on the other hand, accuse her government of increasing government spending.

Who ultimately becomes the strongest party was completely open before election Sunday: Orpo’s Conservatives received 19.8 percent of the vote in the latest primary election poll of the Finnish radio station Yle, the Finns party around its leader Riikka Purra 19.5 percent and Marin’s Social Democrats up to 18.7 percent.

Traditionally, the leader of the party with the most votes is the first to form a new government in Finland. However, long and tough coalition negotiations are expected as several parties have ruled out cooperation with the right-wing populists. For a majority, the winner of the election will likely depend on another of the major parties and at least one of the medium and smaller parties.

In May 2022, Finland, impressed by Russia’s offensive war against Ukraine, had applied for NATO membership along with Sweden. Following the recent approval from Hungary and Turkey, all 30 NATO members have ratified accession, meaning that Finland’s membership only requires formalities to be completed. According to NATO information, Finland will become an official member in the coming days.

Accession to NATO, however, played no role in the election campaign. In general, there is a high degree of agreement in Finland on this point, which meant that the parties could hardly gain points against their opponents on this point. Instead, the main focus was on domestic issues, such as increased government spending. (sda/dpa)