Nuclear weapons in Belarus: what Putin intends with his announcement

In view of rising tensions with the West, Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that tactical nuclear weapons will be stationed in neighboring Belarus. With this shift to the west, Russia wants to have nuclear weapons ready outside its own territory for the first time since the 1990s. Belarus is Russia’s closest ally in its war against Ukraine, but has not sent troops into battle itself.

Unlike strategic nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons have a significantly lower explosive power. Warheads with a detonation force of 100 kilotons of TNT to several megatons are considered strategic nuclear weapons. In comparison, the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945 had a yield of 15 kilotons. The explosive power of modern tactical nuclear weapons varies greatly and may even be well below that of the Hiroshima bomb. However, that does not make them any less dangerous, on the contrary.

While strategic nuclear weapons are subject to the logic of mutual destruction and thus serve ‘only’ to deter an opponent, the use of tactical nuclear weapons does not necessarily lead to an unlimited nuclear exchange of blows. In the military, therefore, tactical warheads are considered “deployable” in a limited scenario.

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, including tactically. While NATO armies have abolished their tactical stockpiles, with few exceptions, such as the B61 bombs stored at Büchel Air Base, Russia has largely retained its tactical arsenal to this day. US researchers from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists currently estimate the number of tactical warheads in Russian arsenals to be at least 1,912, most of them under naval and air force control.

Russia has stationed 10 aircraft in Belarus capable of carrying such weapons, Putin said. A number of Iskander tactical cruise missiles capable of launching nuclear weapons have also been transferred to the neighboring country. Operational crews must be trained accordingly from 3 April. Russia retains control of the nuclear warheads.

Medium-range bombers such as the Tupolev Tu-22M, the Sukhoi Su-24 or the MiG-31K are capable of firing nuclear-tipped cruise missiles from the air. The hypersonic missile called Kinshal, which Russia claims to have used several times in the war against Ukraine, also falls into this category – albeit equipped with conventional explosives.

Iskander-M intermediate-range missile launchers can fire missiles with a range of 500 kilometers and cruise missiles with a range of 1,500 kilometers – both nuclear and conventionally armed. Iskander-M is already stationed in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, from where they can also reach Berlin, Warsaw or Copenhagen.

During the Cold War, tactical nuclear weapons were developed to destroy troop concentrations, tank formations, command centers or underground bunkers. Even if their explosive power is lower than that of strategic nuclear weapons, their effects are still devastating. Even small nuclear warheads create mushroom clouds, nuclear fallout and set everything in the area on fire.

“These weapons are not about military targets, it’s about showing that you are willing to use them and kill countless civilians in the process,” said disarmament expert Pavel Podvig last fall, referring to Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons.

Scientists usually interpreted Putin’s announcement as a clash of arms. “This is part of Putin’s attempt to intimidate NATO,” said Federation of American Scientists expert Hans Kristensen, who specializes in armaments and security issues. Russia has no military advantage in this move, as it already has a comprehensive nuclear arsenal on its own territory.

Following Putin’s announcement, the US presidential office said there was no reason to change US nuclear weapons policy, nor were there any signs that Russia was preparing to use a nuclear weapon. A senior government official said Russia and Belarus have been discussing such an agreement since last year.

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), an alliance of non-governmental organizations, spoke of an extremely dangerous escalation. In connection with the war in Ukraine, the risk of an incorrect assessment is very high. There is a risk of catastrophic humanitarian consequences.

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