This is the current situation on the war front

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War of attrition in Bakhmut, drone strikes in Crimea, explosions in Zaporizhia: something is happening in Ukraine. There is even talk of an imminent counter-offensive. An overview.

It started with many small fronts in Ukraine, even Kiev in the north was attacked by Russia. As the war progressed, Ukrainian troops pushed the enemy further and further back. Although the front now stretches for almost 1,000 kilometers, the offensives have largely come to a standstill and a war of attrition is raging in Ukraine.

The fighting between Ukraine and Russia in March is still mainly concentrated in eastern Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War, there has been heavy fighting between the two cities of Luhansk and Donetsk in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian forces are particularly successful at the northern and southern ends of the front.

Russian troops occupy a large part of the area between the front and the Russian-Ukrainian border. The focus of Russian troops is on Donbass and holding Crimea, annexed in 2014.

Ukrainian forces have managed to recapture areas since the invasion began on February 24, 2022. In the south, between Mykolaiv, Kherson and Zaporizhia, and in the north, between Kharkiv and Luhansk, there are successful offensives by Ukraine, according to ISW.

There has been heavy fighting around the village of Bachmut for months. Give up? Not an option for either party. Ukraine hopes to exhaust Russian soldiers in Donbass. However, for months it seemed that Ukraine was in a hopeless situation. The tide has turned and now the Russian Wagner group leading the battle for Bakhmut is in trouble.

Oleksandr Syrskyj (57), commander of the Ukrainian army, announced a counter-offensive in the Donbass on Thursday: “The Russians are clearly losing strength and are exhausted. Very soon we will seize this opportunity, as we have done with Kiev and Kharkiv.”

Syrskyj’s words on Thursday are not the only signs that the Ukrainian side is preparing for a counterattack. On Tuesday and Wednesday it was announced that Ukrainian drones had attacked the two Crimean cities of Dzhankoy and Sevastopol. For security expert Gerhard Mangott (56) “a harbinger” of the coming offensive.

A Ukrainian frontal attack on Donbass, which has been occupied since 2014, is not expected. Zaporizhia Oblast is more interesting. Important Russian defense lines pass through there. “A Ukrainian attack from the frontline in Zaporizhia to the south would significantly worsen the supply situation for Russian troops in the region,” political scientist Christian Mölling (50) told ZDF.

And: A breakthrough at the Zaporizhia front would mean that the Ukrainian army could launch an attack on Crimea.

What Ukraine lacks in personnel, it makes up for in quality. Nevertheless, Ukraine is dependent on the West for materials, weapons and ammunition. Ammunition, missiles, tanks and fighter jets enable Ukraine to keep the Russians at bay.

On Thursday, EU leaders will decide on another important ammunition package for Ukraine. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell (76) announced that large-bore 155 millimeter calibers worth one billion euros should be sent to Ukraine immediately.

While Russia’s spring offensive is not quite over, Ukraine needs to prepare for new counterattacks, Berlin-based Gustav Gressel, an expert on security policy and military strategies, explained in an interview with Blick. “As soon as the Russian front collapses in one place, Ukraine must use these holes.” A similar situation was observed around Kharkiv last summer.

It is important that Ukraine wants – and must – prove to the West that the arms supplies are useful on the battlefield. Gressel cannot say when a Ukrainian victory will come or when the armed conflict will end. “I think we’ll get a lot of answers in the second half of the year.”

Source: Blick