Putin struggles with composure

Almost a little embarrassed, he stood at the exit of the Kremlin Palace. Vladimir Putin shook hands with Xi Jinping on Tuesday night. “Have a good trip,” the Russian president wished his Chinese counterpart. He waved at him. “Be careful, my friend,” Xi replied as he walked to the car.

Putin followed him a few steps and waved to Xi again. The photos give an idea of ​​how relieved the Kremlin chief must be after Xi’s three-day visit. Russia now puts everything on one map: China.

Shortly before that, Putin had issued a closing statement. In the Russian-Chinese negotiations, news broke that Britain wants to supply Ukraine with depleted uranium ammunition. The Kremlin chief seemed bewildered, a little nervous. To him, the message was a through ball – which he used. While depleted uranium has nothing to do with nuclear weapons, Putin wanted to present the West to the Chinese public as an irrational power that risks nuclear war. It’s another scene in the Russian president’s great war masquerade.

For him, it was already a great success that Xi had traveled to Russia in the first place. Shortly after the International Criminal Court in The Hague issued an arrest warrant against Putin, the Chinese president appeared in Moscow and even invited the head of the Kremlin to China.

Putin can now also hope for support from China for his war in Ukraine – even if it is not official.

Will Putin’s arms aid come from China?

Russia is still not doing very well in Ukraine. The New Year’s offensive largely came to nothing, Russian territorial gains were minimal, despite the mobilization of at least 300,000 reservists. Russia has been attacking the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut since autumn 2022, and so far Putin’s army and Wagner mercenaries have failed to take the city.

Meanwhile, reports are mounting again that the troops are having ammunition problems. In addition, Russian military bloggers, including Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, warn of an imminent Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Of course, all this could also be Russian war propaganda. Much of what happens on the battlefields in Ukraine is shrouded in the fog of war. It is completely unclear how big the Russian supply problems are and how well positioned the Ukrainian army is.

Only one thing is certain: Putin is still confident in his strategy that he will ultimately have more stamina than the West in the war of attrition. But Russia did not achieve any countable war successes for a long time and also gained ground. Just countless casualties on both sides.

Russia’s failures in Ukraine also pose problems for China. Xi doesn’t want Putin to lose, but he’s officially neutral. Both presidents have held back on arms shipments and have not commented publicly. But it is considered likely that they also talked about it.

China is acting cautiously

Of course, Russia would be only too happy to buy military hardware and weapons from China. Meanwhile, the Russian army is already using the T-62 tank in Ukraine, which was produced from 1962. But China has other interests and does not want to break openly with the West and the US for economic reasons. At least not right away.

Therefore, China’s support for Putin’s war of aggression is likely to be shadowy or circumstantial. With dual-use goods that can be used for civil or military purposes, for example semiconductors or civil drones. However, in an emergency, Chinese weapons could also be delivered to North Korea and repainted there to disguise their Chinese origins.

If Putin is up to his neck in Ukraine, China could intervene. Xi wants to prevent a change of power in Russia at all costs. Both countries share a long common border and the People’s Republic needs the Russian Federation as a strategic partner in the fight against the US, nothing but a source of uncertainty in the region. For Xi, Putin is the perfect partner: he is predictable. Both have known each other for a long time and the Kremlin boss has maneuvered himself into a situation with his war where he is heavily dependent on China and becomes more dependent with every day of the war.

Will China Continue the War?

The Chinese president, on the other hand, showed clearly on which side China stands with his visit to Moscow. Putin’s war crimes and further escalation of the war barely factor into Xi Jinping’s strategic calculations. On the contrary: the new bloc formation has cemented itself in recent days, China and Russia form a community of fate – or so it seems.

This is also a warning shot for the West, which has re-intensified its support for Ukraine in the shadow of the Putin-Xi alliance. The European Union is sending ammunition that the Ukrainian defenders urgently and urgently need now: artillery shells, ammunition for tanks and howitzers, and missiles for air defense systems. The Marder and Leopard 2 tanks are already underway and Abrams main battle tanks will arrive from the US in the fall. All this, combined with the training of Ukrainian armed forces on weapons systems, is a sign of determination towards Putin.

stop in front

And what is happening in Ukraine now? In any case, the Ukrainian army could be ready for a new offensive soon, but that will take time. “It won’t be able to start at 8 a.m. on April 2,” Brigadier General Christian Freuding said in an interview with the ARD main studio. After all, the new weapon systems would first have to be incorporated into the army: “We therefore do not expect any initiative from the Ukrainians in the coming days, but in the coming months.”

Therefore, the standstill at the front is currently a success for Ukraine. This means that they now have air, weapons and military equipment from the West to distribute to different points on the front and then, if necessary, develop a concept for a counter-offensive. Only one thing seems clear: Ukraine will attack where it sees weaknesses in the Russian frontline.

However, China remains the main source of uncertainty for the West and for Ukraine. If the second largest military power in the world took an even more active stance on behalf of Putin in the conflict, Russia would have an advantage in a long war of attrition. Xi was with Putin and so far has refrained from talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. That too is an important signal from Beijing. The relief on Putin’s face after Xi’s departure certainly does not bode well – neither for Ukraine nor for the West.

(t online)