“Loss of Crimea would be a total Russian defeat”

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Two Ukrainian drone strikes in Crimea in two days – the Ukrainian army seems to want to create facts on the Russian-annexed peninsula. And so exposes Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin (70), who appeared in Crimea over the weekend to celebrate the anniversary of the Russian annexation of Crimea.

Shortly after this visit, there were explosions in the town of Jankoy. Finally, Sevastopol was attacked by a Ukrainian overseas drone on Wednesday night.

Is this the beginning of the reconquest of the peninsula by Ukraine? Security expert Gerhard Mangott (56) tells Blick: “The attacks are at least a preparation for it.”

The reconquest of Crimea needs a lot of preparatory work

However, according to Mangott, that is easier said than done. “First of all, the Ukrainian forces should advance through their spring offensive to the southern city of Melitopol and capture it. Then they should penetrate to the coast of the Sea of ​​\u200b\u200bAzov and split the occupied territories in the south in two. Those would be the conditions for the reconquest of Crimea.”

While Ukraine’s official goal is to recapture Crimea and with it the port city of Sevastopol – where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based – it is not certain that Crimea can actually be retaken even with these preparations. “The attack on Crimea itself will be a very difficult and dangerous undertaking for Ukraine.”

A scenario like last summer, in which the Ukrainians surprised the Russians in Kharkiv and Kherson, is not going to happen in the south, Mangott emphasises. Because the Russian armed forces will “do everything possible” to keep Crimea. Russia has enough military personnel and equipment in southern Ukraine to counter Ukraine’s spring offensive – and to defend Crimea.

Crimea too important for Russia and Ukraine

Moreover, a loss of Crimea would most likely result in the loss of Putin’s power. “Losing Crimea would be a total defeat for Russia. Occupying less Ukrainian territory than it did before February 24 is unacceptable to the collective leadership,” Margott said.

Russia expert Ulrich Schmid (56) explained to Blick last December: “Crimea is a very emotional place for Russia. From Moscow’s perspective, Crimea is the cradle of Russian Orthodoxy and thus of Russian culture.” And: For many Russians, the peninsula has been a popular holiday resort for centuries. Since 2014, the city of Sevastopol has had the same federal status as only Moscow and St. Petersburg.

But the Ukraine is also very interested in the peninsula. “Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol is a constant threat to Ukrainian security,” explained Schmid. According to the expert, it is also about the territorial claim to it: “According to international law, Crimea still belongs to Ukraine.”

According to Mangott, continued support from the West with arms and ammunition is crucial for a successful spring offensive in Ukraine and a reconquest of Crimea. The EU agreed on Monday to supply Ukraine with one million rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition within the next 12 months.

Source: Blick