The eternal loser Approach: Cassis and EU Commissioner Sefcovic are full of praise for the joint talks

He seems gentle, almost a little shy. But now Kemal Kilicdaroglu faces the task of a lifetime: in Turkey’s presidential election he challenges Recep Tayyip Erdogan – the strong, loud-mouthed man at the head of the ruling AKP party. It will be a duel of opposites.

Kilicdaroglu is seen as anti-Erdogan. His followers call him the “Gandhi Kemal” or the “Turkish Ghandi”. Especially since in 2017 he walked a justice march v from Ankara to Istanbul – about 400 kilometers – with a steadily growing number of supporters. While Erdoğan has increasingly divided Turkish society to stay in power, the leader of the Kemalist CHP is known for seeking compromise. Erdogan rumbles, Kilicdaroglu picks flowers.

Who is this man? And with this course can he really be successful as a challenger and replace Erdogan?

In any case, Kilicdaroglu has better chances in the May 14 presidential election than any other CHP candidate in recent decades. Erdogan is currently under heavy criticism for Turkey’s ongoing economic crisis and for his crisis management after the devastating earthquake. One thing is certain: Erdogan’s weakness is currently Kilicdaroglu’s greatest strength.

Fight the image of the loser

For Kilicdaroglu, the election campaign is now about doing away with the image of the eternal loser and presenting yourself as a serious alternative to the AKP leader. That is not self-evident. Erdogan has been in power for 20 years and entire generations have grown up in Turkey with him as a political leader. For many of his supporters, the long-time president is still seen as a pioneer of Turkey’s economic upswing despite an inflation rate of more than 50 percent.

Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, has headed the Republican People’s Party (CHP) for more than 13 years, which from a Western perspective can best be compared to social democracy, only with much more patriotism. Kilicdaroglu ran for mayor in Istanbul in 2009 and lost. This was followed by many years of defeats by the CHP candidates against Erdogan and his AKP. After all: Kilicdaroglu was able to stay at the top of the party during this time, which is not a given.

Only in 2019 did the tide turn for the opposition in the country. Kilicdaroglu nominated two previously unknown mayoral candidates in Istanbul and Ankara for the CHP. Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yava – both won against the AKP candidates. A heavy defeat for Erdogan and a chance for Kilicdaroglu to position himself for the 2023 presidential election.

Too left, too soft, too unsuccessful

Yet not many people in Turkey have counted on Kilicdaroglu as a candidate in recent years. He had not yet won an election and his critics thought he was too left-wing and too soft to win against Erdogan. He also belongs to the Alevi religious minority, viewed with suspicion by conservative Sunnis and nationalists. There’s a lot that speaks to him.

After all, the CHP also had two successful mayors as possible candidates. But Imamoglu was sentenced to a political ban in a politically motivated trial and Yava would have had to hand over his mayoral office to the AKP. Kilicdaroglu then grabbed hold of it.

However, his candidacy remained controversial because the CHP chairman also had to convince the other five parties in the opposition alliance. Because one thing is clear: Erdogan can be defeated, but only by a closed opposition.

Meral Aksener, the leader of the right-wing conservative Iyi party – the second largest party in the alliance – initially publicly rejected Kilicdaroglu as a candidate in February. She was more likely to win with one of the CHP mayors, the current candidate being politically too left. But Kilicdaroglu then posed for a photo with Imamoğlu and Yavas, showing the unity of the CHP. Kilicdaroglu also negotiated a deal with the Iyi party that would see Imamoglu and Yavas as his deputies if he became president. Aksener then relented.

The change of power is indeed possible

So the path to Kilicdaroglu was always rocky. But his biggest task is only now before him: the election campaign against Erdogan. The Turkish president contemptuously refers to his opponent as “Mr. Kemal” in his campaign speeches, referring to the advanced age of 74-year-old Kilicdaroglu. It’s similar to Donald Trump calling Joe Biden “Sleepy Joe” before the US election.

Erdogan’s strategy is clear: he presents himself as a guarantor of stability. The 69-year-old presents himself as a strong leader who can take on internal enemies such as the PKK terrorist organization and increase his country’s influence abroad. This was well received by many Turks.

Nevertheless, the incumbent is clearly lagging behind at the moment. According to a recent survey, if both candidates go to a likely second round, just under 43 percent of Turks would vote for Erdogan and 57 percent for Kilicdaroglu.

This is mainly due to the crises that the current Turkish government could not handle. The economic and lira crisis has impoverished a large part of the Turkish middle class, partly due to the president’s economic policy mistakes. In addition, the earthquake in the southeast of the country claimed nearly 50,000 lives and hundreds of thousands of people lost their homes. Help for the people came too late, Erdogan apologized. The devastating effects of the natural disaster were also due to tampering and corruption in the construction sector – the AKP took no action against this for years.

It is precisely in these areas that Kilicdaroglu’s strengths lie. He is regarded as a competent administrator who has also made a name for himself politically by acting against corruption. In addition, he could become a Turkish president who would use compromise to reconcile Turkish society. He introduced a law in parliament to ensure that devout Muslim women could wear a headscarf. He integrates the pro-Kurdish HDP, but criticizes the PKK. He also wants to renegotiate the refugee deal with the European Union.

All in all, this makes him an option for many Turks — and a threat to Erdogan. In the end, however, many compromises will be required to sustain a possible multi-party government alliance. Because one thing Turkey absolutely does not need in the coming years: more political chaos. (t online)

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