“We’re in the Nuclear Wild West”

“Russia is suspending its involvement in the New Start Treaty.” With this sentence Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) not only suspended a historic nuclear agreement on Tuesday, which initially contributed to the end of the Cold War. But he also severed one of the last channels of communication with the United States. International control over Russia’s nuclear arsenal is dwindling.

Even though the impression has long been that Russia is ignoring agreements, the suspension is by no means purely symbolic, emphasizes Alexander Bollfrass (38), military and nuclear weapons expert at ETH, in an interview with Blick. He warns: “Russia has ruthlessly broken the guardrails that were meant to prevent an escalation.” Guardrails created at the end of the Cold War because the West felt that Russia did not deserve to be trusted when it came to nuclear weapons.

The expert suspects that Putin wanted to make a political statement rather than drastically expand his nuclear arsenal. “With this decision, Putin seems to make it clear that he no longer wants to be bound by international agreements and standards – neither in nuclear nor in humanitarian matters.”

Putin could use nuclear weapons on the battlefield

However, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Russia will continue to abide by the strategic limits of its nuclear arsenal set in the treaty. For Bollfrass, however, this is by no means a reason to calm down. “The fewer communication channels there are, the greater the risk of tragic miscommunication.”

He also thinks the fear of a nuclear escalation on the part of Russia is justified. “It is possible that Russia will use nuclear weapons to fill its military’s shortfalls.” However, according to the expert, this would bring few benefits. “It would probably anger China, which is Russia’s main partner in its assault on the global rules-based order.” China has repeatedly advised Russia not to use nuclear weapons.

Arms race is only a matter of time

With Putin’s announcement of the «New Start»-Out have now begun a long-standing problem. “We are now in the nuclear Wild West,” Bollfrass said.
Without a Russian-American nuclear deal, an arms race – including with China – is only a matter of time. Although there is no agreement with China, this country could also soon further increase its nuclear capabilities.

Because without the exchange of data that guarantees such deals, all parties will quickly start to assume the worst from the other side. “So they will try to increase their own arsenal to cover themselves. Attempts to achieve nuclear disarmament will be practically impossible,” Bollfrass said.

Another indication that the world is in a new cold war. Nobody trusts the other, and nuclear intimidation could be the only solution to stay in power.

Source: Blick