“Whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (68) once said. Ekrem Imamoğlu (52) won a spectacular victory three years ago in the mayoral elections in the metropolis on the Bosphorus. According to polls, the opposition politician also has a good chance of inheriting Erdogan as head of state.
But six months before the presidential election in Turkey, a court dealt a huge blow to the ambitious politician’s career.
Imamoğlu was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison. The reason for this: Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu (53) of the ruling AKP party called him an idiot – to which Imamoğlu responded. He said those who canceled the mayoral elections in Istanbul were idiots.
“Imamoğlu is a central figure in the opposition”
The 2019 mayoral election was held twice. In the first ballot, Imamoğlu was about 14,000 votes ahead of his AKP competitor, President Erdogan’s party (68). The AKP contested the result and the competent Supreme Electoral Council declared the election invalid. In the repeat election, Imamoğlu won again – with about 800,000 votes.
Imamoğlu now faces two years and seven months in prison for his comments. A harsh judgement. Not without reason. “It is very clear that President Erdogan and his government want to prevent a candidate from getting big chances in view of the upcoming presidential election in June,” Turkey expert Ali Sonay of the University of Bern told Blick.
Imamoğlu would have had a good chance of replacing Erdogan as president. “The mayorship in Istanbul has political, economic and symbolic power, which is why Imamoğlu has become a central figure in the opposition – so much so that he has been discussed as a possible candidate in the upcoming presidential elections.”
“Judicial processes are the central tool”
The verdict caused an uproar in Turkey. According to surveys, a large part of the population also considers the conviction unjust and politically motivated. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets in Istanbul the day after the sentencing.
Imamoğlu is just one of many ousted by Erdogan. Sonay on Blick: “Judicial processes are the central tool to weaken, delegitimize or render ineffective opponents who challenge the AKP’s power or government.”
In Turkey, the president can rule for a maximum of two terms. Erdogan would only be in power for five more years if re-elected. Sonay does not believe that he will just retire from politics. “He will certainly use any further term to work towards his successor.” For example, he could continue to exert influence if he were to remain party leader of the AKP.
Turks doubt Erdogan
No matter how tightly Erdogan clings to power, the crackdown on Imamoğlu could be his downfall. The controversial verdict could give new impetus to the difficult cooperation of Turkey’s highly fragmented opposition. So far, the alliance has not been able to agree on a single candidate.
Initial polls show that Wednesday’s decision could backfire on Erdogan. Accordingly, even many voters from his Islamist conservative AKP party see the verdict against the mayor as “politically” motivated.