Event with announcement: Bolsonaro has been sowing doubts about the electoral system for years, Parisian court again deals with deadly slimming pill

On Sunday (local time), thousands of Bolsonaro supporters stormed the government district in the capital Brasília. There they invaded the National Congress, the Supreme Court and the seat of government.

An act that is reminiscent of the Capitol storm on January 6, 2021. At the time, it was Trump supporters who stormed the US Congress in Washington. They were given access to offices and halls, where they triumphantly sat down in their chairs and rebelled. The photos went around the world.

In both cases, the two former presidents complained beforehand about electoral fraud. Trump is accused, among other things, of being partly responsible for the storming of the Capitol. To investigate this claim, a special panel of the US Congress spent months questioning witnesses and analyzing data. The investigation eventually culminated in a recommendation to the Justice Department to prosecute Trump.

What about in the case of Brazil? How much is Jair Bolsonaro responsible for the riots? How does he react to what is happening?

Bolsonaro condemned the attack by his radical supporters on the government district. “Peaceful demonstrations are part of democracy. Looting and raids on public buildings, such as those that took place today, are not included,” the right-wing ex-head of state wrote on Twitter. And further:

Lula accused Bolsonaro of inciting his supporters. “They used the Sunday silence when we were still forming the government to do what they did. There are several speeches by the former president in which he advocates this. This is also his responsibility and the responsibility of the parties that supported him,” Lula said.

Bolsonaro denied the allegations, writing:

Well, the New York Times did some useful work last October. A team has analyzed countless hours of video footage of the ex-president’s speeches, interviews and live streams. They wanted to know how Bolsonaro created the myth of Brazil’s stolen elections. That is extremely successful: a survey in October showed that three out of four Bolsonaro supporters have little or no confidence in Brazil’s voting machines.

This is despite the fact that 30 years before the 2022 presidential election, Bolsonaro has not suffered a single electoral defeat. Nevertheless, he criticized the electoral system long before he was elected (and voted out) president. A chronology of his claims.

2014: First criticism of the electoral system

In Brazil, paper voting was abolished in 1996 and a voting system that is unique in the world was introduced: voting machines have been used to vote completely electronically ever since. Election papers are no longer available. The machines played an important role in eradicating voter fraud, which was still a problem in the days of paper elections.

Bolsonaro wants nothing to do with it. On the contrary. He highlights digital voice recording as a weak point. You can never be sure that the ballots will be counted correctly, he complains.

He first publicly criticized it in 2014, while still a member of Congress. This was triggered by the narrow defeat of centre-right candidate Aécio Neves in the October 2014 presidential election. Neves had contested Dilma Rousseff’s defeat and requested a review. This happened, but produced no evidence of fraud.

2015: Measures against the system

Bolsonaro promised to abolish the electronic-only voting system. At first, he seemed to succeed with his plan: in 2015, Congress passed a measure requiring paper backups. However, this failed in the Supreme Court, which vetoed the amendment. He justified the decision by saying that the right to secrecy of the vote would be violated.

Bolsonaro therefore accused the judges of helping the left manipulate election victories.

2018: The elections won

Even before the 2018 presidential election, for which he was a candidate, he denounced the “unsafe” electoral system:

Bolsonaro won the election. And still doubted the result. Reason: He did not immediately win the elections in the first round, but still had to go to the second round. If the left hadn’t stolen votes, there wouldn’t have been a runoff, he complained. He has never presented any solid evidence for his claims. His allegations were nevertheless investigated – and refuted. A study published last year in the academic journal Forensic Science International concluded:

2022: Before the elections

Bolsonaro is not interested in such studies. In the run-up to the presidential election in October 2022, his criticism of the voting machines gained momentum again. He was probably encouraged by the polls, according to which he was behind challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. He complained that he would most likely lose the election because of voter fraud.

In June 2022, his claims suddenly gained support from the military. According to the Brazilian armed forces, they have identified some weaknesses in the electoral system. They proposed some minor changes, which were implemented by the electoral authority. Bolsonaro still did not feel safe.

That same month, he threatened to contest the result if he lost the election. As he said during a speech:

Such statements not only set alarm bells ringing among the opposition, but also among experts and judges. Edson Fachin, Brazil’s chief election commissioner and Supreme Court judge, described Bolsonaro’s statements as deeply dangerous:

However, Bolsonaro used exactly this argument for himself. It was obvious to him that the majority of Brazil would elect him president. In an interview with “SBT News”, he stated with conviction:

2022: After the elections

The day of the decision fell on October 2: Bolsonaro received 43 percent of the vote. He received far more votes than previous polls had suggested. But it was not the 60 percent he predicted. Even though he made it to the second round with 43 percent, he was sure: it must have been election fraud. Of course he saw this opinion confirmed when he lost the second round on October 30 by just 49.10 percent to Lula da Silva.

He refused to admit defeat and remained silent for two days after the election. Meanwhile, his supporters took to the streets across the country to protest the result.

He finally spoke out on November 1, announcing that the power transfer process would begin. Three weeks later, he filed a complaint against the election results with the Supreme Court. Failed: The Supreme Electoral Court rejected the request for review of the election results in the same month.

Since then, his supporters have repeatedly blocked country roads, camped in front of barracks and called for military intervention in favor of the deposed head of state.

2023: The escalation

Given the background, the fact that his supporters stormed the government district on Sunday was more shocking than surprising. As president, he gave one last clear signal when he left the country two days before the end of his term and flew to the US. Contrary to custom, he was not present when the new president Lula took office. He could hardly have expressed his aversion to the electoral system and left-wing politics more clearly – of course, this did not go unnoticed by his supporters.

The void left by his absence from Brazil is filled with protest, noise and accusations from his followers. He doesn’t have to say much more in Florida, where he is now. While he may not be directly involved in Sunday’s events, his followers echo the claims he has been making since 2014.