It was public revelation for Republican Kevin McCarthy (57): The Californian failed Tuesday in the election for Speaker of the US House of Representatives, and in three attempts. But it was a defeat with announcement.
A small group of Republican hardliners who opposed the politician was the deciding factor in his defeat. McCarthy received just 203 of the 434 votes cast in the first round – he would have needed 218. 19 party members refused to vote for him. Even on the second attempt, these 19 colleagues remained defectors and on the third they grew to 20.
The next round of voting in the House of Representatives starts on Wednesday at 6 p.m. (Swiss time).
Why is this so spectacular?
For the first time since 1923, a designated leader is not elected by his own party on the first ballot. This makes it difficult to deal with the situation – you cannot draw on previous experience.
The Speaker of the House of Representatives is the most powerful person in the United States after the President and Vice President. As long as this post remains vacant, nothing will function in the lower chamber. It is all the more important that this happens quickly.
What’s next?
“I don’t think a new speaker will be chosen today,” suspects Martin Thunert (63), US expert at the University of Heidelberg. But McCarthy isn’t giving up. But if the number of dissenters continues to grow, as happened between the second and third ballots, he will probably have to withdraw his application.
Then, according to Thunert, they will look for an alternative candidate from their own ranks who has more integration power – probably Steve Scalise from the state of Louisiana. The Democrats have no reason to save the Republicans. Rather, they believe that this chaos makes it clear to voters that the Republicans cannot govern efficiently, the expert suspects.
“But the more the prospective speaker, regardless of his or her name, has to make substantive and personal concessions to current deviants within the party, the more detrimental this could be to the business of the Biden administration,” warns Thunert. Because the more power these dissenters have, the more decisions can be blocked.
Why is this so problematic for Republicans?
That a small group of far-right politicians can hold American Republicans hostage shows the deep rifts in the party. For them, the Californian is not combative enough in dealing with the Democratic government.
The conflict between the hardliners and the faction majority has been smoldering for a decade, but this time, according to expert Thunert, there is a crucial difference: “At the time, the whole faction was considerably larger – 20 dissenters could not endanger the majority. Today the group of hardliners is not bigger than they used to be, but because of the extremely narrow Republican majority, they are now the deciding factor.”
Is there a solution?
According to Thunert, a solution would be simple. “Republican hardliners are demanding changes to parliamentary rules that would strengthen the group’s influence. Moderate Republicans have said they would only accept rule changes if it resulted in McCarthy being elected speaker.” In other words, “You agree to the rule changes, in return 15-16 dissenters agree to vote for McCarthy.”
But that won’t happen. Because: the hardliners are always clear on McCarthy and probably won’t make any confessions.
What is changing in foreign policy?
According to Thunert, not much will change in foreign policy. “There are relatively small groups of both Republicans in the House of Representatives and Democrats who do not like the almost unconditional support of Ukraine by the United States.” The determination of the majority in Congress, in the population and especially in the White House to continue supporting Ukraine, especially militarily, will not change for the foreseeable future.