Vladimir Putin’s troops, 70, rained down 69 rockets and dozens of kamikaze drones on Thursday morning in one of the heaviest attacks on Ukraine in recent months. More than three-quarters of the missiles were intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses. Nevertheless, the megacities of Odessa and Dnipro had to preventively cut off the electricity – and in the capital Kiev, after the most recent attacks, almost half of the inhabitants were without electricity again.
“Russia does not want to give Ukraine a break at the end of the year,” explains Marcel Berni, 34, military expert at the Military Academy of ETH Zurich. “Ukraine must sink into cold and darkness.” The Kremlin’s calculus remains aimed at demoralizing the civilian population in the war-torn country.
According to Berni, the American air defense system Patriot, which the United States will supply to Ukraine, could help to better defend important ground positions and cities against such missile attacks in the future, according to Berni. “However, it will be months before the Patriot system can be used in Ukraine,” says the military expert.
Missile strike as a sign of Russian desperation?
The Patriot system could make a decisive difference, especially in the future, if Russia increasingly relies on the Iskander ballistic missiles that have been held back so far, adds Niklas Masuhr, 29, strategy researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the ETH Zurich, please. “However, the Patriot systems are not an impenetrable protective shield. Like any air defense system, they too can fly around, be electronically jammed or become supersaturated with a large number of missiles fired,’ Masuhr emphasizes.
The reason for the tenth coordinated Russian missile strike against civilian targets in Ukraine could be the stalled advance in Donbass. According to the American think tank “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW), Russia has almost run out of military capacity to continue the attacks on the disputed city of Bakhmut for months. This is shown, for example, by the fact that some high-ranking political representatives of the Ukrainian government – not least President Volodymyr Zelensky (44) personally – were able to visit Bakhmut and address the Ukrainian troops on the spot.
Peace negotiations remain unlikely
Another indication of the Russian crisis on the battlefield, according to the ISW experts, are the apparently shrinking combat units, which indicate massive human losses on the Russian side. According to Ukrainian government sources, 790 Russian soldiers were killed on Wednesday alone.
Nevertheless, even at the turn of the year, more than ten months after the start of the Russian attack on Ukraine, military expert Marcel Berni sees no end to the war in sight. “I don’t see any possibilities for a ceasefire or even peace negotiations at the moment.” The demands of both parties differed too much. “Unfortunately, this war is not yet ripe for negotiation,” says Berni.