30,370,000 km², 1216 billion inhabitants, 54 countries – having Africa on your side means you can call the second largest continent – in terms of population and area – your ally. China, Russia and the West are also aware of this.
No wonder then that US President Joe Biden (80) invited African heads of state to Washington a few days ago. Africa’s success is the world’s success. Russia and the United States have handed each other doorknobs in Africa in recent months. First, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (72) visited the continent in the summer, shortly afterwards his American counterpart Antony Blinken (60) headed south.
The background: the war in Ukraine and the lack of condemnation by the African states. Because they mainly suffer from the war and the sanctions – everything is becoming more expensive, grain deliveries are lacking. The two blocs – the US and Russia – are trying to convince African leaders of their positions. But the Russian version in particular still seems to be gaining traction in Africa.
Russia wants to find allies in Africa
“There is a new cold war going on between the US and Russia,” said William Gumede, 52, founder and chairman of the South African organization Democracy Works, in an interview with Blick. However, it already seems clear to him that there are likely to be clear losers in this cold war: the West, of which the US is broadly representative, and democracy.
According to Gumede, Russian influence in particular is becoming increasingly visible in African governments. A development that worries him, but which hardly surprises him. “The war on democracy in Africa has been going on for a long time – for more than two decades.”
For example, fighters from the Wagner Group have been stationed in Mali since 2021 and German and French blue helmet operations have recently been interrupted. Michel Wyss, 35, an expert in proxy warfare at the ETH Zurich Military Academy, explained to Blick in June: “As in other African countries, Russia offers itself as a security partner. Officially, the Wagner Group is used to train Malian security forces.”
It is no coincidence that Russian mercenaries have taken on the “protection” of Mali. “Moscow is specifically trying to expand its power in Africa,” says Wyss. While political instability in Mali has led to a break with Europe, it has opened up new opportunities for Russia in Africa.
‘They see Putin as a role model’
Countries such as Russia and China have been expanding their influence on Africa for years, also economically. “Russia and China have invested heavily in Africa. Of course not without ulterior motives,’ says Gumede. “They want to find allies, because Russia has not only been isolated from the West since the war in Ukraine.”
African leaders seem to like Russia’s autocratic tendencies. Gumede explains: “While the African people are clearly in favor of democracy, government leaders don’t want that at all.”
And even worse: “African top politicians see Vladimir Putin (70) as a role model.” This is also why many African countries do not condemn or even support the war in Ukraine. “In Africa, people are happy that Putin has slapped the West in the face with the war.”
The West must deal with Africa
And what is the West doing? “Nothing,” says Gumede. “The West barely noticed all this happening – and now it’s almost too late.” Because the West would only care about Africa if the continent could be useful to the West, says Gumede. Like now. For this reason, Biden’s statements seem more hypocritical than supportive.
Turning things around can be difficult, Gumede predicts. Because: “The West was long ago replaced in Africa by Russia.” To win back Africa’s favor, the West must do one thing above all: “Look long-term and differentiated towards the African continent.” And that is more urgent than ever, thinks Gumede.