For nearly nine months, Putin’s offensive war against Ukraine was a “special operation” for the Russian people far from home. On Tuesday, the reality of the war then – literally – also hit Russia. Within two days, three airports in Russia were attacked by drones. On Monday first Dyagilevo airport in the Ryazan region and Engels airport in the Saratov region. The place in Kursk followed on Tuesday. Three soldiers were killed.
Vladimir Putin (70) called an emergency meeting of his Security Council. And the Kremlin also responded promptly, reports the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Because the government’s new propaganda narrative is no longer “denazification of Ukraine” but “defense of Russia from the West” – and of Ukraine. “It is possible that the Russian authorities are promoting defense preparations in Russia to arouse patriotic feelings,” the British Ministry of Defense said in its report.
The reason: own people no longer believe the government. Only 25 percent of Russians support Putin’s war in Ukraine. 55 percent is for peace negotiations. This is according to a secret poll by the Kremlin that became public.
The justification for this war is on shaky ground, explains Ulrich Schmid (56), Slavist at the University of St. Gallen. “The story that they wanted to ‘denazify’ Ukraine hardly caught on with the general public. Now the story that Russia is at war with the West and especially against NATO is in the foreground,” Schmid told Blick.
In the words of the ISW experts, “The Kremlin appears to be moving away from the limited war coverage it intended to reduce Russian public concern about the war.”
‘A perfidious reversal of perpetrator and victim roles’
But there may be more to the change in propaganda strategy. Prepare the Russians for a second mobilization. Frithjof Benjamin Schenk (52), professor of Eastern European history at the University of Basel, also told Blick: “The damage to Russian military bases is being used by the government as an excuse to mobilize its own population for an alleged ‘defensive war’. This is of course a perfidious reversal of the roles of perpetrator and victim.”
At least on the Russian-Ukrainian border, this seems to be having an effect. Kursk Oblast has announced the formation of territorial defense units, exposing “many civilians to the war under the absurd premise of a Ukrainian ground assault on the Russian border regions,” according to ISW.
Secret Kremlin Study Revealed
Both experts currently consider it unlikely that Putin will actually risk a second mobilization. Schenk zu Blick: «After eight years of war, Ukraine will hardly accept a peace dictated by Russia. Moreover, a second major mobilization of reservists could lead to another mass exodus of young and qualified Russian workers abroad, with correspondingly negative economic consequences for Russia.”
Although popular support for this war is waning, Putin need not fear nationwide protests. “Many are apathetic to this war and retreat to the position that they have no influence in big politics anyway,” explains Russia expert Schmid. This is both an advantage and a disadvantage. “On the one hand there is little resistance to the war, but on the other hand there is also little support.”