Things are not looking good for Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70). Neither on the battlefield in Ukraine nor in Moscow. The president is losing power, which is exactly what former confidants could use to overthrow him.
An employee of the Russian secret service FSB, who has been sending confidential messages to the Russian dissident in exile Vladimir Osechkin (41) since the beginning of the war, fears bloody battles for Putin’s successor.
Two names in particular keep coming to the fore: Yevgeny Prigozhin (61), head of the notorious mercenary group “Wagner Group” and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov (46). Both men have gathered an army around them and have repeatedly criticized Putin and his warfare. At the same time, conditions in the Russian army are catastrophic. This is exactly what plays into the hands of Kadyrov and Prigozhin, military experts from the Institute for War Studies (ISW) concluded in an analysis at the beginning of November.
“Chaos, Civil War, Collapse”
Now the situation seems to have worsened. Prigozhin and Kadyrov could use force to overthrow Putin. In a recent email from November, the FSB agent speaks of a civil war as “inevitable.” A simple change of power is not possible in Russia.
“There is no way to ‘change everything’ in Russia so that the country functions as one and does not fall into the abyss of terror,” the FSB whistleblower writes. And he explains how the battle for Putin’s successor could go. “Initially there could be riots, with nothing but looting and chaotic skirmishes between all involved.”
Putin’s security forces would try to put down these uprisings, leading to a “real war” with the Wagner army in their own country. It is also possible that there are bloody conflicts over resources and regions in the country. And that would have fatal consequences for Russia. “Chaos, civil war, collapse – yes, it’s all ahead of us,” the FSB agent writes in his email.
“Putin is the face of the current system”
Ulrich Schmid, professor of Russian culture and history at the University of St. Gallen, believes it is unlikely that there will actually be a bloody change of power in Russia. Such speculation has been going on for weeks. One should not overestimate Prigozhin and Kadyrov. “Prigozhin does not receive widespread support from interest groups in the Kremlin. There is a strong group working to end the war and restore the status quo ante. Prigozchin is not good at that,’ says Schmid to Blick. Apart from Chechnya, Kadyrov has no allies in the Kremlin’s power apparatus. And he also knows that he can achieve little in Moscow.
But it is true that Putin is being criticized from all sides. “The ultranationalists want more involvement in the war, the liberal insiders want an end to the war, the oligarchs no longer see it as a guarantee of their privileges,” Schmid summarizes.
Nevertheless, the Russia expert considers one or more coup attempts questionable: “Putin is the face of the current system. A fall seems unlikely to me.” But Schmid could imagine a Spanish scenario, such as that of dictator Francisco Franco (1892-1975). The dictatorship only ended with the death of Franco. As Putin’s successor, Schmid considers a ‘loyal technocrat’ plausible – who has hardly spoken about the war.