The southern Ukrainian city of Kherson has been liberated. Online videos show residents tearing down Russian flags from rooftops and singing the Ukrainian national anthem. They survived eight months of Russian occupation. But the war never ends. The artillery continues to thunder. Since yesterday, the Russians have been shelling the area they have just given up.
With the reconquest, Ukraine celebrates a symbolic victory. Kherson – some 300,000 people lived there before the war – is the only regional capital that Putin has captured since the invasion. Their loss is a disgrace to the Russian army, but not a major setback. Because now there could be a stalemate.
Kherson is located right on the Dnieper River. All bridges over the water are impassable – as is the nearby Kachowka Dam. The Russians had no choice: resupply was only possible via a ferry connection. But not enough: Ukraine’s defense minister estimates that there is still a shortage of 40,000 Russian soldiers.
In the end, they failed due to the natural strength of the Dnieper. However, the same threatens the advance of the western bank. Even if the Ukrainians were able to cross the river, they would face the same supply problems as the Russians in Kherson.
Is Putin blowing up the dam?
Last but not least, an almost endless steppe stretches there – without sufficient cover. Added to this is the fear of mines or a Russian counter-attack, which is also slowing down the Ukrainian advance. President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted that Putin could blow up the Kochovka dam.
The fact that the soldiers of both armies will meet on the Dnieper in the near future is in Putin’s interest, says Ulrich Schmid, professor of Russian culture and history at the University of St. Gallen: “The longer the Kremlin’s territories, the more difficult their reintegration to Ukraine will be.”
Russia is vigorously pursuing Russification. They use buses and even teachers flown in from Russia for their brainwashing. Most opponents have already fled the annexed territories. According to Schmid, Putin “still hopes that the West will grow weary of war.” If support from there dries up, the Russians could quickly regain the upper hand.
In short, winter is approaching, the war is about to freeze – but a protracted war tends to play into the Russians’ hands.