As Ukrainian troops jubilantly hoist their national flags over Kherson after a full-scale Russian withdrawal, Western experts wonder if the offensives will be halted before winter approaching or if there will be some sort of stalemate once Russian forces are exhausted and the river is drained. the Dnieper a major challenge for both warring parties.
A winter break is obvious, especially for Russia. However, that would be fatal for Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes in its daily report. While the defenders have won a major victory – Ukrainian troops are already in the center of Kherson – a ceasefire would play into Russia’s hands. “A ceasefire would give the Kremlin much-needed rest to regroup Russian forces,” the report said.
Russians want to save time with the winter break
If there were a winter break, it could last up to six months. Rain and soft ground in late November will slow the movements of both forces. As the temperature drops and the ground freezes, it becomes easier for tanks and trucks to move around. But the possibility of heavy snowfall and even colder weather could make it difficult for the ill-equipped Russian military to launch another offensive.
“You can already see that the bad weather in Ukraine is slowing things down a bit,” Colin H. Kahl, the secretary of state for defense policy, told the New York Times last week. “It gets really muddy, which makes large-scale offensives difficult.”
Ukrainian special forces and partisans will continue to carry out small-scale attacks behind Russian lines, according to Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow in military sciences at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense analysis organization in London. Military expert Georg Häsler also explains in an interview with Blick TV: “Ukraine could carry out attacks before winter. But it will only really take place in January and February.” The Russians in particular would like to gain time now.
“There is no break in the war”
But the ISW sees no signs that Ukraine is entering the winter without a fight. “Winter weather could cause disproportionate damage to poorly equipped Russian forces in Ukraine, but it is unlikely that well-equipped Ukrainian troops will halt their counter-offensive because of the winter weather.” Instead, Ukrainian troops would use the frozen terrain to their advantage, allowing them to move around more easily than during the muddy autumn months.
In fact, according to the New York Times, there are indications that the Ukrainian army is preparing for another land offensive between the two fronts – south through the Zaporizhzhya region to Melitopol to challenge Russian influence over the entire southern area conquered by the invasion. that started in February. “The logic of war cannot be paused and somehow moved forward,” senior lieutenant Andriy Mikheichenko, commander of an anti-tank unit defending the disputed town of Bakhmut in eastern Donbass, told the newspaper. “I think there will be counter-attacks in other directions so that the enemy doesn’t have time to move reserves and block attacks.”
There were also signs that Ukraine continued to strike deep behind Russian lines. Rocket attacks have been reported against Russian forces that have regrouped in several places along the eastern shore, as well as attacks in recent days on the southern towns of Melitopol and Henichesk near the Black Sea coast, more than 60 kilometers from the front lines. (chs)