The Ukrainian blue and yellow are once again blowing over the left bank of the Dnieper – and thus also over the city of Kherson, which was recently abandoned by Russia. As the Russian Defense Ministry announced on Friday, all troops were moved to the right bank of the river. A bitter loss to Russia – Kherson was a strategically important city.
And as is so often the case, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin (70) was not there to break the bad news to his people and troops. Instead, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (67) and the Russian commander in Ukraine, General Sergei Surovikin (56), stated in a televised interview that holding on to Kherson was no longer justifiable.
Putin shuts up – and sells withdrawal as a strategy
Putin’s deafening silence is not surprising, as Ulrich Schmid (56), a Slavist at the University of St. Gallen, explains to Blick. “Putin is a master at attributing failures to others. He only puts himself in the spotlight when there is a victory to report – otherwise a scapegoat is sought. » This has been Putin’s modus operandi for years.
Dominik Knill (63), president of the Swiss Officers’ Society, assumes in an interview with Blick that the withdrawal is intended to prevent domestic unrest. “Giving up ‘Russian’ (illegally annexed) territory would hardly be justifiable domestically. In this regard, it can be assumed that the retreat across the river serves to bring about a ceasefire.”
«From a Russian point of view, the withdrawal from Kherson is just an episode»
But what seems to be leaking out despite the absence of the Russian president: Even though the loss of Kherson was very emotional for Putin – it proves that the man in the Kremlin, known for his unpredictability, can also act pragmatically, according to experts at the ” guard”. The Kremlin boss won’t give up anytime soon.
Knill: “Putin doesn’t want to go down in history as Russia’s gravedigger. He will do everything in his power to return Russia’s pride.” Instead, Putin’s troops would withdraw and regroup their troops. So he didn’t give up.
Schmid is also certain: “From a Russian point of view, the withdrawal from Kherson is only an episode. The fact that the Russian army is now withdrawing is probably part of a larger strategy.” So what is Putin up to?
‘Russia is winter time’
A US security official told the New York Times: “Putin is in no rush. He sees this as a longer, large-scale conflict with the West.” He is an opportunist by nature. “His strategy now is to wait until the end of winter to see how things are and then reassess the strategy.” Schmid: “Mid- and long-term fatigue is expected in the Kremlin, Western Ukraine.”
Colonel Knill carries out Russian “hibernation” tactics. “Russia will use the winter period to rearm, improve logistics, train soldiers and cadres, and buy weapons and systems from allied states. The war and the front lines are literally frozen.” He is sure: “As long as Putin believes he can sit through this war because he does not have to consider democracy and the rule of law, he will remain in Ukraine with the support of allies.”
“Retreat is not a harbinger of catastrophe”
Mick Ryan, the retired Australian Major General, also warned on Twitter that Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson should be treated with caution. « Retreat is a task regularly used during mobile defense or delay to achieve the general purpose of resuming the offensive action. It should be treated as a routine tactic and not a harbinger of disaster.”
That would be fatal for Ukraine, writes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in its daily report. While the defenders are on the brink of a major victory – Ukrainian troops are already in the center of Kherson – a ceasefire would play into Russia’s hands. “A ceasefire would give the Kremlin much-needed rest to regroup Russian forces,” the report said.
But the ISW sees no signs that Ukraine is entering the winter without a fight. “Winter weather could cause disproportionate damage to poorly equipped Russian forces in Ukraine, but it is unlikely that well-equipped Ukrainian troops will halt their counter-offensive because of the winter weather.” Instead, Ukrainian troops would use the frozen terrain to their advantage, allowing them to move around more easily than during the muddy autumn months.