The Kherson debacle is not without consequences for the Russians Somalia: the army kills dozens of Al-Shabaab fighters

What does the withdrawal mean for the Kremlin?

Kherson was the first major Ukrainian city to be captured during the Russian war of aggression in southern Ukraine. It was not until late September that Putin annexed the entire Kherson region. Now the turning point: On November 9, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the withdrawal of Russian troops across the Dnipro River to the eastern bank. Personnel, weapons and equipment must be transported across the Dnipro.

From a Russian perspective, Shoigu withdraws Russian soldiers from Russia. Many Western, but also Russian military experts describe the withdrawal as a disgrace to the Kremlin.

Former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov described the Telegram withdrawal as Russia’s biggest geopolitical defeat since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Other military bloggers saw the retreat as a natural consequence of a systematic failure within Russia’s command structures.

But there was also praise for the decision. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said the decision saved thousands of lives. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin also publicly supported the withdrawal.

Is Kherson back in Ukrainian hands yet?

No, it’s not that fast. British military intelligence reported on Thursday that Russian forces had destroyed several bridges and also laid mines. The withdrawal was expected to last several days.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops have advanced seven kilometers in two sectors in the southern regions of Kherson and Mykolaiv. About 264 square kilometers and 12 cities were recaptured, the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Valeriy Saluschnyj, told Telegram news service.

Could it be a trap?

The Ukrainian leadership has so far reacted very cautiously to the announced withdrawal. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliak was skeptical: he accused Russian troops of making Kherson a “city of death”. The Russian army mined “everything they can: apartments, sewers”. The Russian artillery plan “to turn the city into rubble,” Podoliak wrote on Twitter.

The American think tank “Institute for the Study of War” (ISW) considers the withdrawal unlikely to be a trap. According to the ISW, it has signaled many signs that the Russian military is constantly withdrawing. “Russian commanders will certainly try to slow down the Ukrainian advance to maintain an orderly retreat. Some troops may be left behind to stop Ukrainian troops in the city of Kherson itself, but these battles will be a means of withdrawing as many Russian units as possible in an orderly manner.”

Why are the Russians withdrawing from Kherson?

Former German General Roland Kuther said in an interview with Welt that the withdrawal was “due to the facts”. Indeed, Kherson on the western bank of the Dnipro has been a strategically vulnerable position since the Russian advance was halted south of Mykolaiv in the spring.

In recent months, Russian logistics on both sides of the river have come under fire from HIMARS and other longer-range missile artillery. Subsequently, strategic bridges were attacked. Finally, the pontoons the Russians had built to resupply their troops in the area across the river.

According to several military experts, the withdrawal may therefore be a result of targeted attacks by Ukraine, which have cost the Russian group in the West Bank its main supply routes.

Ukrainian intelligence put forward another reason: sometimes the “best trained and most capable Russian troops” were stationed west of the Dnipro. Includes elite air force and naval infantry troops.

What’s next?

For the Russians, the withdrawal means that for the foreseeable future it will be impossible to advance further west according to the plan – towards Mykolaiv and Odessa. Thus, Russia is likely to be denied its strategic goal of building a land bridge to the port city of Odessa.

For the Ukrainians, the question is how much resistance they will encounter in the reconquest of the south. Satellite images show that Russian forces are building three major defenses east of the Dnipro, complete with trenches and bunkers.

As the ISW writes in its assessment of the situation, the Ukrainian armed forces will try to disrupt the Russian retreat as much as possible. Securing the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station upstream from Kherson could be critical.

Russian officials and military bloggers have been claiming for weeks that Kiev plans to attack the hydroelectric dam. Western actors see this as a false flag operation. The destruction of the dam could further affect Ukraine’s already ailing energy supply.

For the time being, Russia continues to control a large part of Kherson oblast. The withdrawal of the entire Russian contingent across the Dnipro River will take some time, the ISW writes. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have consistently shown in recent months their ability to reclaim land flexibly and creatively.