Beijing will be the biggest loser in the US elections: that’s why China is trembling about the return of Donald Trump

Because when Trump was in power from 2017 to 2021, he started a trade war and increased import tariffs on Chinese goods from 3 to 25 percent, which were also maintained under Joe Biden. That’s still not enough for him, Trump recently told Fox News. His goal for a second term: he would raise rates to more than 60 percent!

According to The Economist, China posted a record trade surplus of $419 billion with the US in 2018. With Trump’s tariffs, this value fell to $280 billion last year. Now he wants to achieve ‘balanced trade’ with even stricter restrictions.

China in crisis

Beijing is particularly afraid if Trump were to reappoint Robert Lighthizer (76) as trade representative. In his book ‘No Trade is Free’ he describes China as ‘the greatest threat’. He proposes to monitor Chinese investments for “long-term economic damage.” Tiktok and the establishment of Chinese companies are on its banned list unless countervailing legislation is introduced and thus access for US companies in China.

Beijing does not need such restrictions: it is facing a real estate crisis; a stock market collapse wiped out $7 trillion in assets. At its height, the trade war between the two superpowers reduced China’s gross domestic product by 0.8 percent, according to Goldman Sachs.

Taiwan in danger

On the other hand, Trump could also give the Chinese advantages. When Trump recently threatened to drop the defaulting NATO states, Xi Jinping may have clapped his hands. For him, NATO is a threat and any attempt to destabilize the Western security alliance is welcome.

During his time in office, Trump also promoted the withdrawal of U.S. troops from foreign missions. To Beijing’s delight, he made similar comments about US troops in Japan and South Korea.

The question also arises whether he would defend Taiwan as fiercely as Biden has always promised in the event of a possible Chinese attack. Simona A. Grano (45), China and Taiwan expert at the University of Zurich, says: “Trump as president would be dangerous for the island. He is not interested in Taiwan. I fear that the island nation could be used in exchange for an agreement with China.”

Trump, especially if he were to withdraw troops, could allow the Chinese to expand their influence in many parts of the world – especially in the Global South.

Biden also with a heavy hand

And Biden? If the incumbent president were to be re-elected, the Chinese would not be able to hope for economic relief either. Biden has maintained and even supplemented Trump’s trade measures: To curb competition in China, he imposed import restrictions on semiconductors and chip-making equipment while promoting domestic manufacturing.

Biden has also taken military steps that do not suit China at all. Biden has formed the ‘Aukus’ alliance with Australia and Britain to protect security and their own interests in the Indo-Pacific region against China.

Who is better for China?

Trump or Biden? Beijing knows that if Biden remains in power, he will likely decide on further restrictions – for example on the import of electric cars. If the unpredictable Trump were to come to power, China would have to expect a shock that would shake the entire economy.

Therefore: Trump as president is a horror scenario for Beijing, Biden is the lesser evil.