Donald Trump is a titan with feet of clay. The Trump show is becoming more and more extreme, I have experienced it myself

The question logically arises: does Donald Trump benefit from Ron DeSantis throwing in the towel? The answer is a resounding yes.

To be fair, it would take a political earthquake or a political miracle – or both – to challenge Trump as the Grand Old Party’s presidential candidate. The studies are too clear. Even if Nikki Haley were to win the New Hampshire primary next Monday — with as much imagination and optimism as can be imagined — it would do her little good. Already at the next elections in South Carolina – where she was once governor – she will be trampled into the ground by Trump.

The resignation of Ron DeSantis plays a minor role or no role at all, as the governor of Florida was already a “dead man walking” after his disappointing performance in the Iowa primaries. The ex-president should in any case benefit from this, after all, DeSantis wanted to present himself as a ‘Trump with brains’ and the gang of sincere DeSantis fans will now probably switch to the Trump camp.

Nikki Haley, for her part, has the duel of twos she wanted; “A man and a woman,” as she smugly notes. She also receives – at least for the time being – the financial support of the billionaires around Charles Koch. But given the desperate situation the former UN ambassador finds himself in, it is only a matter of time before this flow of money dries up and she too capitulates.

So game, punishment and power for Trump? Not quite. A victory in the primaries is by no means a guarantee of entry into the White House. There are reasons why Biden’s team wanted and still wants the ex-president as an opponent. Here you are:

If you paint with a broad brush, you could say that the American electorate is divided into three roughly equal groups. There is the MAGA crowd that supports Trump unconditionally. A group of roughly the same size is equally resolute in their support of the ex-president.

The third group decides the elections; the independent voters. The suburban women once called “soccer moms” will be the deciding factor. To win those votes, Trump would have to appoint Nikki Haley as his running mate. In this way, he could manage to win back at least part of the electorate that turned away from him in 2020.

However, it is unlikely that Trump will choose Haley. On the one hand, the wounds the two have inflicted on each other are too great. Above all, the MAGA crowd is strictly against it. Haley is considered a “globalist” because of her past as a UN ambassador. Meanwhile, evangelicals see the Indian-born woman as a suboptimal representative of a Christian state.

Now it is by no means the case that Trump can do whatever he wants and the MAGA crowd blindly follows him. When the ex-president wanted to tout one of the few successes of his term – the rapid development of a vaccine against the coronavirus – he was booed by his sworn supporters. He has avoided the subject ever since. If he were to appoint Haley as his deputy, he should expect the same reaction. Corresponding messages have already appeared on social media.

Therefore, it is likely that Trump will select a MAGA-ready candidate such as Elise Stefanik or Kari Lake. However, in doing so he alienates the soccer moms whose voices he so desperately needs.

Other factors that speak against Trump include:

Finally, we should not forget that Trump has never succeeded in gaining a popular majority and has suffered mainly embarrassing defeats in recent years. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a realistic chance of winning the November election. But it also means that anyone who thinks it’s already here is either rejoicing too quickly – or panicking too quickly.