The approaching winter will put Russian troops in Ukraine in particular in trouble. You have no warm clothes. That is why ETH military strategist Mauro Mantovani (59) is convinced that the cold wave will be fought intensively.
“In view of the onset of winter, the warring factions should equip their troops with winter clothing, especially if they intend to wage a war of movement,” Mantovani told Blick. According to numerous reports, the Russian army in particular has major problems with it.
The Ukrainian military, on the other hand, could benefit from an aid package announced by the Canadian government last week. This includes anoraks, thermal pants, boots and gloves for half a million people. Germany has also provided Ukraine with 116,000 cold-resistant jackets, 80,000 cold-resistant trousers and 240,000 hats.
Offensive for the start of winter
However, according to Mantovani, the frozen ground would be an advantage for the side that has heavier weapons, namely the Russians. “However, as their mobility is limited for other reasons, such as lack of spare parts and technicians and exposure to missile fire, the cold weather is still more in favor of the Ukrainian side in the overall balance.”
Overall, the low temperatures are likely to complicate extensive ground operations on both sides and freeze the front lines, Mantovani says. He therefore expects that the fighting will intensify in the coming weeks. Mantovani: “Aware of the difficult conditions, both sides will probably try to gain as much ground as possible before the start of winter.”
The winter is likely to hit the civilian population of Ukraine particularly hard. “If Russia’s attacks on energy supplies continue, new refugee movements could emerge,” Mantovani said.
«General Winter» reigns
It can get bitterly cold in Ukraine in winter. Kharkiv is particularly exposed, where the average daily maximum temperature between December and February is -3 and the daily minimum temperature is -9 degrees, according to Meteo News. Temperatures of -41.9 degrees have already been measured in Luhansk.
Typical autumn conditions currently prevail in Ukraine. Precipitation is expected mid-week, after which temperatures are likely to rise. According to the experimental models of the European Center for Medium-Range Forecasts, a milder than usual winter is to be expected. Meteo News notes that the uncertainties are quite large.
Ice and snow had already played a decisive role in several wars. For example, when Napoleon wanted to conquer Russia in 1812 and in 1941 the Germans had to capitulate to “General Winter” after massive losses.