It starts next Monday. The first primaries take place in the American state of Iowa; the start of a long race that could end with the White House in Washington. Five key points about the primaries.
Three years after he had to leave Washington a defeated man, Donald Trump is back. All national polls say the 77-year-old is the favorite of Republican voters as the primaries begin. More than 60 percent want to appoint the ex-president, who lived in the White House from 2017 to 2021, as the right-wing party’s top candidate for the third time.
Ron DeSantis, the 45-year-old governor of Florida, and Nikki Haley, the 51-year-old ex-governor of South Carolina and former US ambassador to the UN, each trail Trump by about 50 percentage points. Two other candidates – entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, 38, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, 61 – are far behind. “The polls show that we will win by a wide margin,” Trump cheered in Iowa this weekend.
How confident Trump is going into the primaries was evident from his campaign speech, which only the former entrepreneur and television star could deliver. A tour de force in which he mocked President Joe Biden, called the criminals who stormed the Capitol in Washington in January 2021 “hostages” and criticized the widely respected President Abraham Lincoln.
In any case, it would have ended the American Civil War (1861 to 1865). “I think it could have been negotiated,” Trump said of the bloody clash between the Northern and Southern states.
However, despite the good poll numbers, the Republican presidential candidate will not be determined in the national primaries. Separate contests will be held in more than 50 U.S. states and territories through early June, each of which will award delegates to the Republican National Convention in July.
Some of these primaries are traditional ballot box elections (“primaries”), others are party meetings (“caucuses”). The start is on January 15 in Iowa – a state where Christian conservative voters play an important role in party meetings. New Hampshire follows eight days later with its first vote.
The electorate in the small east coast state is generally seen as stubborn and independent. After stops in Nevada (February 8) and South Carolina (February 24), the first peak follows in early March. On ‘Super Tuesday’, March 5, primaries will take place in 16 states and US territories.
This calendar has its own pitfalls. Since Trump is the favorite in Iowa, anything short of a clear victory would have a negative impact on his candidacy.
Both Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are hoping for a surprise. They hope to give their campaigns an extra boost with a good performance at the party meetings. Haley feels the wind at his back in New Hampshire, because there are enough right-wing voters in the east coast state who are looking for an alternative to Trump.
Recently, Haley told New Hampshire voters, “You know Iowa is just getting started. They know they are making a correction.” And then comes her home state of South Carolina, where she will take home the win.
The problem with this strategy: Haley is not the only candidate besides Trump. In Iowa, right-wing politician DeSantis threatens to steal her votes; in New Hampshire, the moderate Christie appeals to a similar segment of voters as the former governor.
As in 2016, when Trump initially won only about 30 percent of the vote in the primaries, his opponents were once again able to stand in his way. Because the Republicans have a rule that the winner of the primaries wins all the party conference delegates (“winner takes it all”), a fragmentation of the anti-Trump field ultimately benefits the ex-president.
It is completely unclear how the ex-president’s legal problems will affect the election campaign. So far, Trump has benefited from the criminal and civil cases brought against him at the federal level, in New York and in Georgia. He claimed this weekend in Iowa that he was only indicted because he was “fighting a corrupt election.”
The numerous court hearings that await the ex-president could throw a spanner in the works for the Trump campaign. It is already noticeable that the Republican appears less often in the contested primary election states than the competition. On the other hand, his speeches are less a collection of political promises, but often pure entertainment.
Perhaps this will help him win the hearts of Republican voters again. However, this could offend the general public. (aargauerzeitung.ch)
Soource :Watson
I am Amelia James, a passionate journalist with a deep-rooted interest in current affairs. I have more than five years of experience in the media industry, working both as an author and editor for 24 Instant News. My main focus lies in international news, particularly regional conflicts and political issues around the world.
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