Danger of war in the Middle East: US threatening behavior has so far prevented escalation. The UN is bankrupt and has to close its headquarters in Geneva – because the US is not paying either

An Israeli F-15 fighter jet thunders several times over the Israeli tourist town of Eilat on the Red Sea. In Aqaba, the Jordanian counterpart of Eilat, the Jordanians have hung a huge Palestinian flag as a provocation – in full view of Israeli holidaymakers.

Regardless of pro-West Jordan, the Red Sea is increasingly becoming a combat zone in a hybrid war that Iran is waging against Israel and the West with the help of its Arab allies. In early December, Yemen’s Shiite Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Eilat, but it was intercepted by the Israelis.

Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthis have resorted to disrupting shipping traffic through the Red Sea with piracy attacks, drones and cruise missiles. The entrance to the Red Sea between Yemen and Africa is known as the ‘Gate of Tears’, but is located approximately 2,000 kilometers from Eilat. Nevertheless, the Houthi attacks are raising fears that the conflict between Hamas and Israel could spiral into a conflagration.

Western warships have now shot down several Houthi missiles and sunk at least three Yemeni boats. But that doesn’t seem to really impress the Shiites in Yemen. They are trying to sell the attacks on civilian ships to the world public as acts of solidarity on behalf of the besieged Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. The “Gate of Tears” is an important trade route, especially for Europe. Is it therefore only a matter of time before the US and its allies launch a counterattack on the Houthis’ launch sites and ports?

The assassination of the deputy head of the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas also fueled fears of escalation. Salah al-Arouri was killed by Israeli missiles in the south of the Lebanese capital Beirut. Hardly anyone will seriously doubt that Hamas wants to respond to this attack with a terrorist attack on Jewish targets. In the Gaza Strip, however, it is under severe pressure, if not already significantly weakened.

Small war on Israel’s northern border

The main question is therefore what the response will be from the Shia terrorist organization Hezbollah, on whose territory al-Arouri was murdered. Since the Hamas massacre on October 7, Hezbollah has been engaged in a small war with Israel in southern Lebanon, but neither side has yet really wanted to escalate.

Like Hamas, Hezbollah is supported by Iran, the only difference is that the Lebanese puppet organization in Tehran is much larger and militarily stronger than Hamas. Hezbollah can also receive supplies directly from Iran via Syria and Iraq.

Most likely, Hamas had hoped to use the massacre of civilians in Israel on October 7 to draw Hezbollah and Iran into a major war against the Jewish state. However, both Iran and Hezbollah claimed that they were only informed of Hamas’ plans at the last minute. So you are not directly involved in the war.

The immediate dispatch of two American aircraft carriers and escort ships certainly helped calm emotions in Iran, but also in Lebanon and Syria. The Americans have so far responded with limited counterattacks to attacks by Iranian allies on American forces in northern Syria and Iraq.

From Hamas’s perspective, the best time for escalation would have been the period immediately after October 7. Israel was surprised and shocked at the time. Reservists had to be mobilized first. A multi-front war with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon would likely have overwhelmed Israel. But this favorable moment for Hamas is now long gone. Viewed this way, it would be illogical if Iran and Hezbollah were currently interested in unleashing a major war against Israel. (bzbasel.ch)