How Putin wants to make 2024 his year of triumph – in 5 points Increasing success in the fight against drug trafficking – cocaine smuggling will still increase

The visible tension of the first days of the war has disappeared for Vladimir Putin after almost two years of his bloody invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin chief remains silent about the tens of thousands of deaths during his campaign.

And the 71-year-old has long ago reinterpreted his attack on the neighboring country as a war against the West and NATO. With his ‘fight against the external enemy’ he has won many Russians to his side.

Putin, who has been in power for almost a quarter of a century, wants to make 2024 a year of triumph for himself.

Putin and the war in Ukraine

Putin has more self-confidence again. “Peace will come when we have achieved our goals”Putin said confidently at his major annual press conference in December.

A victory for him would be Ukraine’s decision not to join NATO. After many defeats in the first year of the war, Putin now sees the initiative again in his army. Moscow reports conquests in the Donbass – and is happy that Western aid continues to dwindle and Ukraine is running out of soldiers.

Putin recently said that the West’s plans to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia or isolate the country on the world stage had failed.

The Kremlin has made it clear time and time again that negotiations with Ukraine will only take place on Russian terms. This would amount to a surrender of Kiev. Putin openly admits that this is important to him Collection of historical Russian areas – to protect the Russian language and culture. At the end of the year, he also emphasized to the army that he had no interest in western Ukraine, the former Polish territories that Soviet dictator Josef Stalin had once given to Kiev after World War II.

However, Putin has recently repeatedly said that the Black Sea metropolis of Odessa in southern Ukraine is a “Russian city.” Putin said Russia was only interested in “its” former territories. Russia, Putin explained, had long been the guarantor of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Due to their desire to join NATO and anti-Russian nationalism under Kiev’s leadership, this is over once and for all.

Putin’s new world order

The Kremlin leader, accused by critics of pursuing an increasingly totalitarian course, is confidently promoting a new world order that, in his view, is already emerging.

Putin wants to realize a new multipolar world – without American supremacy. His own freedom of travel is being restricted because the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for him for war crimes in Ukraine. But the Kremlin chief resonates with many people in the country as the builder of a new, strong Russia that is self-sufficient and sometimes threatens with its nuclear weapons.

Even Western experts admit that Moscow has so far been able to withstand the pressure of sanctions from the EU, US and other countries better than many expected. The punitive measures were actually intended to deprive Putin of the economic basis for the invasion. But the raw materials power keeps the war economy going thanks to revenues from oil and gas trade with China and India. Quite a few countries are also helping Russia circumvent sanctions and bring sought-after goods into the country.

Russia can report economic growth of more than three percent in 2023. Even as economists criticize that these are just artificial results of a fast-paced war economy that burns state assets, Putin can announce positive news. But experts say the growth is not healthy. In addition, many Western companies have left the country.

Putin, the people’s problem solver

The Russian expert at the American think tank Carnegie, Andrei Kolesnikov, sees the overall “fragile stability” in the country. The low unemployment is compensated by an extreme shortage of skilled workers: many men have to fight in the war or have fled abroad with their families for fear of being deployed at the front. Wage and pension increases were often lost due to the increased cost of living. Because many desirable goods must be purchased with hard Western currency, the value of the ruble remains persistently weak. Purchasing power is constantly decreasing.

Many Russians complain of poverty, fear and lack of perspective. Despite everything, surveys show that most people mainly trust Putin to solve the many problems.

Putin, Russia’s only choice

Putin’s approval ratings are currently significantly higher than before the war, when many people complained of stagnation. “The basic motive for launching the special operation was to maintain power.”says Kolesnikov. According to him, the head of the Kremlin could have won the election even without the invasion, using a system of fear and authoritarianism.

The president had the constitution amended in 2020, specifically to allow him to continue participating in elections. The term of office is six years. He could take office again in 2030 and rule until 2036.

As a former intelligence chief, Putin is considered a master of transfiguration. He emphasizes that Russia is now strengthening its defense force and thus its own sovereignty – after the ‘special military operation’, as Putin usually calls his war, exposed weaknesses.

There is no one in sight ahead of the March 17 presidential election who could pose a threat to the Kremlin chief. The political field has been cleared. Real opponents are not allowed to vote at all. No example shows this better than Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny. Putin had his opponent imprisoned in the ‘Polar Wolf’ prison camp in Northern Siberia, which is notorious for its harsh prison conditions – more than 2,000 kilometers from the center of power.

There is also war fatigue in Russia. The independent opinion research institute Lewada has documented the growing desire for peace negotiations in surveys. But that is not in sight. Rather, there is widespread fear that Putin – inspired by a strong election result – will significantly increase the stakes in his war against Ukraine – including an unpopular further mobilization.

At the turn of the year, assessments of Putin’s long-term rule were piling up: August will mark 25 years since he took power as head of government under weakened President Boris Yeltsin and took over office a little later. in the Kremlin. The overriding tenor is that, after a phase of weakness caused by military defeats, Putin has now regained his composure and found new strength.

The resistance

Yet Navalny, who blamed Putin in 2020 for an assassination attempt on him using the Novichok chemical weapon, is unwilling to give up. He calls for a fight against the power apparatus, which is characterized by mafia-like and corrupt structures and is based on repression. Navalny’s team, expecting massive election fraud, launched the ‘Russia without Putin’ campaign. Voters are encouraged to vote for any candidate – just not Putin.

The chances of success for these protest elections are probably slim. On the one hand, some candidates themselves openly swear allegiance to Putin. On the other hand, to the dismay of many pro-Western Russians, the founder of the liberal opposition Yabloko party, Grigory Yavlinsky, is not running for office this time. He is one of the few prominent opposition figures still free who openly criticizes Putin’s war and calls for a ceasefire.

“There’s no point in being an extra in this circus.”says Jawlinski of his decision. “There is a system of fear, people are afraid of the choice to release their personal information just to collect signatures of support. This is not an election, but a referendum on Putin.”

Putin and peace in Russia

After the failed uprising of Wagner’s private army against Moscow’s military leadership and the fatal plane crash of mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, who fell out of favor in the Kremlin, peace has largely returned to the country. Political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya noted that this time Putin made no big promises at his annual press conference and did not hand out any election gifts. “The Russian leader does not feel that he has to fight for the sympathy of the people; the people are on his side,” she said.

Others speak of a ‘learned followership’ among Russians under the thumb of communism during the Soviet era, from which Putin continues to benefit today. A commentator for the American newspaper “Wall Street Journal”, whose correspondent Evan Gershkovich is in custody in Russia for alleged espionage, recently even called Putin “without joy” the “geopolitical winner” of the year. Putin has strengthened his position with the “cruel advantage of strategic endurance” and autocratic rule.