Failed bank boss positions himself for the highest political office in Ivory Coast: CS bankruptcy clouds Thiam’s dream of becoming president

The Presidential Republic of Ivory Coast, Ivory Coast in French, is a torn country with a turbulent history. After independence from France in 1960, an economic revival followed with a politically stable situation under President Félix Houphouët-Boigny (1905–1993), also known as the Ivorian economic miracle. Houphouët-Boigny belonged to the right-wing liberal Democratic Party (PDCI).

A few years after the president’s death, the country plunged into an economic crisis. In 1999 there was a military coup and then a civil war against the north of the country, where many immigrants live. Laurent Gbagbo (78) of the African People’s Party ruled the country from 2000 to 2010.

After the 2007 peace agreement, northern-born Alassane Ouattara (81) of the liberal Rassemblement des Républicains came to power in 2010. He is still president, even though, according to his opponents, he should not have run for office in 2020 because of term limits.

Corruption and power struggles are still prevalent in the country. There is great resentment towards the French, and in the north there is a danger that Islamists will invade the country. Sebastian van Baalen, Ivory Coast expert at Sweden’s Uppsala University, tells Blick: “The political situation is currently quite stable, as is always the case between elections. However, this stability can be deceptive, as experience shows that political unrest and violence can occur during election campaigns.

In the 2025 elections, Tidjane Thiam will most likely be the opposition candidate. In 2015 he became CEO of the now bankrupt Credit Suisse. He made negative headlines when it became known that the bank had shadowed Iqbal Khan (47), the former head of asset management, by private investigators. The affair was the reason why Thiam resigned in 2020. Thiam, who earned a total of around 90 million francs at CS, is also held responsible for the bank’s collapse.

Thiam already has government experience in his home country. After heading the National Bureau of Technical Studies and Development for four years, he served as Minister of Planning and Development in 1998/99. He was on holiday during the Christmas coup of 1999. Upon his return, Thiam was briefly placed under house arrest. After his release, he fled the country to France, where he held high positions at insurance companies.

It will likely be difficult for Thiam to unseat incumbent President Ouattara. In addition to his popularity, he has also created a regime that unlawfully controls the most important electoral institutions, says Sebastian van Baalen. “But victory is not impossible.”

Simply put, there are three main constituencies in the country: North, East and South-West. To win a majority, a candidate needs the support of at least two of these districts. Thiam must do two things, says van Baalen: “First, convince former president Laurent Gbagbo’s supporters to return to politics and vote, and second, persuade the opposition to support him as the main candidate.”

His opponents accuse Thiam, a dual national, of being supported by Paris. They also bring into play his career at Credit Suisse. They criticize his lax oversight during his five-year tenure, which ultimately led to the collapse of the 167-year-old bank. To appease his critics, he has declared his willingness to give up his French citizenship.

With its revival since 2010, Ivory Coast is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The Africa Business Guide (GTAI) speaks of a relatively “stable environment”. The country plays the leading role in French-speaking Africa and is considered a regional power alongside Nigeria and Senegal.

Cocoa remains the most important export product. Meanwhile, exports of other commodities, especially gold and diamonds, as well as crude oil production have increased significantly. In agriculture, the production of coffee, palm oil, rubber, cotton and cashew nuts is becoming increasingly important, which is also giving a boost to mechanical engineering. The country has also recently started focusing on sustainable tourism.

Van Baalen thinks that if Thiam wins the elections, he will, like the incumbent president, concentrate on further economic growth: ‘The country would not change much under a president Thiam.’ However, Thiam would likely divert the flow of public investment money from Ouattara’s support base in the north to his own constituency in the east and center.