The oil lobby is the strongest force at the climate conference: phasing out fossil fuels is probably still a long way off

Oil lobby strongest power at COP28

It looks something like this. Because the final report would probably be the biggest milestone since the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. But: the text reserves the right to undo this important paragraph. Climate expert Niklas Höhne tells the ARD “Tagesschau”: “Many countries want to keep a back door open.” Several states want this at the conference, including Saudi Arabia, China and Russia. They have been blocking a corresponding decision since the last conference a year ago.

Furthermore, oil and gas industry representatives are numerically better represented at COP28 than most national delegations. This is evident from an analysis of UN data by various non-profit organizations. The distribution of participants showed that more than 2,450 people were identified as representatives of the fossil fuel sector. A sign of the industry’s increasing efforts to influence the discussion on global climate policy.

Logical, because if there is actually an exit, the fossil giants will get into trouble. China needs a lot of oil and gas, Russia and Saudi Arabia earn a significant part of their money from fossil raw materials. A radical exit would be fatal for them. But things would also be tight for companies that trade in oil and gas.

How serious is fossil energy?

Exxonmobil chairman Darren Woods (58) also shows how bleak things actually look for the fossil fuel sector. He appeared for the first time this weekend at the UN climate conference. Maybe to defend your business model? According to him, emissions and not fossil fuels are the problem. And according to him, oil can become climate neutral through capture and storage (CCS). This describes the process by which CO₂ is immediately processed and stored without ending up in the environment.

Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber (50), COP28 president and CEO of oil company Adnoc, tried a similar mental acrobatics this weekend. He claims there is “no scientific evidence” to suggest that phasing out fossil fuels is necessary to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The Guardian reported this last weekend. Al-Jaber also said phasing out fossil fuels would not enable sustainable development “unless you want to return the world to the Stone Age.”

Needing an explanation, he denies these statements – and is surprised: he now considers an exit and a cessation of fossil fuels as “essential”. Al-Jaber said on Monday that he was “quite surprised by the continued and repeated attempts to undermine the work of the COP28 presidency.”

But even if this final report were a symbolic milestone and even if the oil giants become nervous: “Just stop using oil” is not that simple. Because in 2022, global oil consumption was approximately 97 million barrels per day. Global oil consumption has tripled over the past fifty years. Escaping from this will remain a difficult task.