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In addition to the five so-called tilt systems already threatened, three more could be threatened if global warming exceeds 1.5 degrees in the 2030s, said the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), which accompanied the report was involved, citing the work.

What threatens us

One of the report’s lead authors, PIK researcher Sina Loriani, explained that overstepping tipping systems “can trigger fundamental and sometimes abrupt changes.” These could “irreversibly determine the fate of significant parts of our Earth system for hundreds or thousands of years to come.”

Climate researchers speak of tipping points when certain climate phenomena exceed thresholds beyond which they can no longer be reversed. The authors of the report include the overturning systems that are currently threatened, including the Greenland ice sheet and the subpolar vortex circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. The systems that could be particularly threatened from 2030 onwards include boreal forests, mangroves and seagrass meadows.

The analysis makes it clear that current climate change could cause “fundamental changes in key elements of the Earth system,” explains PIK researcher Jonathan Donges. These in turn could lead to “violent conflict or the collapse of political institutions” because of their impact on human societies.

Chance

However, according to PIK, the report’s authors also see opportunities for so-called “positive tipping points,” which could be crucial in “stabilizing the planet and avoiding negative effects of Earth system tipping points on societies.” Such “non-linear changes” can already be observed in the renewable energy and electric vehicle markets. Moreover, political decisions can bring about these ‘abrupt’ positive social and technological changes.

The report on the tipping points will be presented on Wednesday morning (local time) at the current COP28 world climate conference in Dubai. (rbu/sda/afp)