ATACMS missiles, the conflict in the Middle East and the coming winter: will Ukraine now turn the tide of the war?

Ukraine has retaken about 200 square kilometers of its territory since the summer – mainly in the Robotyne area, where it managed to break through the Russians’ first line of defense. ETH military strategist Mauro Mantovani (60) says: “Overall, compared to expectations from all sides, territorial gains are modest and losses on both sides are very high.”

The improved reconnaissance and reaction times of artillery and combat drones were now clearly in the defender’s favor. “That’s why the front lines are stuck,” says Mantovani.

The exact number is difficult to determine. Neutral observers estimate 120,000 dead and about 180,000 injured on the Russian side, and 70,000 dead and about 120,000 injured on the Ukrainian side.

Cold and snow will further reduce troop mobility. “This does not apply to airstrikes in the rear area, where I even expect them to intensify,” Mantovani said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (45) has warned of new attacks on his country’s energy infrastructure. “We have increased air defense as much as possible, as far as this is realistic under the current circumstances.” The Russians focused on energy supplies last winter.

In recent days, Ukraine has received American ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles, which can hit a target with high accuracy even at a distance of 300 kilometers. In their first attack on Tuesday, the Ukrainians apparently destroyed several Russian helicopters and airstrips in southern and eastern Ukraine. Military economist Marcus Keupp (46) from ETH Zurich tweeted that this was the end of the Russian invasion: “Ukraine has ATACMS, shoots Russian air force to pieces.”

On focus.de, political and security expert Gerhard Mangott (57) from the University of Innsbruck says that the system significantly strengthens Ukraine, but does not represent a turning point. Mangott: “Russia has threatened military escalation if ATACMS is delivered. It remains to be seen whether Russia will actually escalate militarily. Besides tactical nuclear weapons, Russia only has a few options.”

The conflict in the Middle East suits Russia well because it prevents the US from supporting Ukraine with weapons and money. Aid pledges from the US and other countries to Israel are fueling hopes in Moscow that the West’s billion-dollar military aid to Ukraine will dwindle even faster than the Kremlin expected.

Russian state media are also happy that the crisis in the Middle East is leading to permanently higher oil prices, bringing more money into the budget. Ulrich Schmid (57), Russia expert at the University of St. Gallen, also confirmed to Blick: “The conflict in Israel is playing into the hands of the Kremlin.”

Following Hamas’s attacks on Israel, concerns are growing in Kiev that international support for Ukraine may decline. During his visit to NATO, Volodymyr Zelenskiy asked to continue supporting Ukraine to bring Russia to its knees.

US President Joe Biden (80) has assured that the US can provide military support to both Ukraine and Israel, while maintaining the country’s overall defense capabilities. Biden: “We have the ability to do that. We have an obligation. And if we don’t do it, who will?” However, further military aid must be approved by parliament.

ETH military strategist Mauro Mantovani expects further Ukrainian successes in wearing down the Russian occupation army by supplying difficult-to-defend weapons and ammunition such as ATACMS. Mantovani: “Equipped with cluster munitions, area targets could now also be combatted, which would, for example, shift the focus to troop masses, airfields or supply bases in the Russian-occupied territory.”

Ukraine should also soon receive GLSDB (Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs), a high-precision guided missile with a range of about 150 kilometers. This could be used to eliminate Russian bunkered targets and air defense facilities on the ground.