Escalation between Israel and Hezbollah “unlikely” according to US intelligence agencies “It is clear that Russia has a motive”: Russian ship was at the pipeline crime scene

Early this year, US intelligence services assessed a military escalation between the Shia militia Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Israeli army as ‘unlikely’.

The Washington Post reported this on Thursday evening (local time), citing an intelligence document from February that it had available. Even in times of heightened tension, both sides have historically pursued the goal of “showing strength and avoiding escalation.” it was said.

Attitude of “mutual deterrence”

Since an agreement between Israel and Lebanon on a common maritime border at the end of 2022, an attitude of “mutual deterrence” has emerged, the newspaper quoted from the document. This includes Israel firing missiles at uninhabited areas in Lebanon or Hezbollah shooting down Israeli drones. While such actions are provocative, they are not aimed at provoking a larger conflict. However, there are factors that could jeopardize this situation, the report said. This includes Hezbollah’s ‘inability’ to control militant Palestinian groups such as Hamas, which is also active in Lebanon.

Overall, he still agrees with the US intelligence services’ assessment, even after the Hamas attack. Terrorism expert Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told the newspaper. But it is already visible that Hezbollah, which is hostile to the Jewish state, is now trying to ‘change the rules of the game’. The militia will take advantage of the lack of attention from the Israeli army and there will always be minor incidents on the border between the two states.

In recent days there have been several minor skirmishes between Hezbollah, which is an ally of the Islamists, and the Israeli army, following the attack by Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip. Many people in southern Lebanon have already fled for fear of an escalation.

Hezbollah is considered much more powerful than Hamas. The influence of the organization, which is mainly financed by Iran, reaches deep into the crisis-paralyzed Lebanese state, with which Israel is officially at war. Last October, the two countries agreed to an agreement on a common maritime border in the Mediterranean Sea, ending a decades-long dispute over maritime space that had intensified after the discovery of large amounts of natural gas. (saw/sda/dpa)