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Michael French is retired, a Republican – and can’t believe it. “This man is a disgrace to my country,” he said, referring to Donald Trump. “He is deeply corrupt, a fraud and a thoroughly terrible person,” French said. The 75-year-old son of an American diplomat is currently on a plane from Washington to Zurich. He worked for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for decades and later taught politics at Washington University.

While he turns his back on the American capital for a few days, the crucial election of the new Speaker of the House of Representatives takes place there. It was the Republicans, the party of which Frans has been a member for years, who plunged Parliament into chaos a week ago. A small group of radicals within the party overthrew the previous chairman, Kevin McCarthy. “We don’t have real leaders anymore,” says Michael French. This applies to presidential candidates as well as to all other offices. “There are no good management staff anymore,” French says. What will happen in Washington this week is just further evidence of that.

People like Michael French represent a desperation that has spread among many Republicans since Donald Trump at the latest. The so-called Grand Old Party (GOP) is deeply divided – into an influential base of Trump supporters and a still responsible and constitutionally loyal section of politicians. The election of the new chairman threatens to create a new rift that could plunge not only the party but also the country into chaos.

Two candidates without a majority

In fact, it is completely unclear whether there can even be a result in the House of Representatives next Wednesday. Due to the division among Republicans, which is also reflected within the faction, there is currently no candidate for whom there is a clear majority. Just like in January this year, there is a threat of a power struggle between more moderate and radical Republicans. To win, a candidate currently must receive at least 217 votes.

One candidate is right-wing conservative Christian national lawmaker Jim Jordan, 58, from the key state of Ohio. He is also a loyal Trump supporter. Jordan could very likely count on the votes of the radicals in the group. Former President Donald Trump has already spoken out in favor of the election of Jim Jordan.

No wonder: Jim Jordan was among the Republicans who spoke about massive voter fraud after losing the 2020 presidential election, laying the ideal groundwork for the storming of the Capitol on January 6. There, the rhetorically skilled Jim Jordan now wants to be elected the third most powerful person in Washington, after the president and his vice president.

Jim Jordan is skeptical about the American aid needed for Ukraine. He recently said: “The most pressing problem for Americans is not Ukraine.”

His chances: Jim Jordan already has about 40 supporters among 221 Republicans. Because Donald Trump has spoken out in his favor, the pressure on the more moderate MPs is also increasing. Because Trump is apparently currently unassailably far ahead in the polls for the next presidential candidate. Taking a stand against Trump also means, when in doubt, taking a stand against your own voters in your constituency. Naturally, the MPs want to be re-elected to parliament in a year’s time. Anyone who does not comply with Trump’s wishes runs the risk of having a Trumpist as an opponent. Jordan’s chances are correspondingly high. If he wins, it would certainly be a triumph for Trump.

The other candidate is Steve Scalise, 58, of Louisiana. He is the current Republican majority leader in Congress. Compared to Jim Jordan, he is considered a relatively moderate conservative. But he is also close to Donald Trump. Scalise has always been a staunch supporter of the former president. During Trump’s term in office, he worked closely with him as Majority Whip, that is, as deputy majority leader in the House of Representatives. After Trump’s defeat, Scalise recognized the result and thus Joe Biden as president, despite initial skepticism.

Scalise recently joined a minority of Republicans in the House of Representatives in voting for a $300 million package for Ukraine and the interim budget negotiated by McCarthy.

His chances: Without a recommendation from Trump, Scalise is considered unlikely to gain the support of his core supporters in the group. So far he has about 25 supporters in the group, some of whom are well known. When in doubt, he faces the same fate as Kevin McCarthy. He had to fight his way through a total of fifteen rounds of voting in January until he was finally elected chairman, thanks to numerous concessions that limited his power and thanks to the grace of Trump.

The unclear circumstances harm everyone

Because it is completely unclear how Republicans will agree on one of the two candidates, it is not only the threat of numerous rounds of voting. This is accompanied by a new phase of uncertainty. Ultimately, a chairman could be elected again who, like McCarthy, has only a very narrow and extremely shaky majority. That would be at the expense of the Republicans, but also at the expense of the entire country. He would again be a political hostage of the radicals and would probably only be able to pass important laws such as the budget with the help of the votes of the Democrats.

Since the position of speaker in the House of Representatives has become vacant, American legislation has been virtually paralyzed. Because it determines the legislative agenda, that is, which bill will be put on the agenda. Many domestic political projects depend on this, but also the important assistance to Ukraine that the US has so far provided to the country in its defensive struggle against Russia.

A destructive dynamic

Kevin McCarthy was impeached because representatives like Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert and Byron Donalds didn’t like him negotiating bipartisan budget compromises to save the US and millions of government workers from a shutdown. These destructive dynamics and majoritarian relationships in our own faction now remain the same.

This time, Republicans absolutely want to avoid public self-dismantling. With a secret, internal vote before the official vote, you want to be sure that there is agreement. However, it is doubtful whether this will succeed. If MPs block each other, even McCarthy, the expelled speaker, could become a candidate again. In any case, he didn’t want to rule it out anymore. MP Kevin Hern could also suddenly announce his candidacy. And then there is the wildcard variant: Donald Trump as a unifying solution.

Matt Gaetz, the leader of the anti-McCarthy rebellion, said on the eve of the vote that he did not yet know whether he would vote for Jim Jordan or Steve Scalise: “I’m still undecided. I’m praying about it tonight.”

For Michael French, the son of the old American diplomat on the plane, guys like Gaetz are the fundamental problem in his party. “For them, the country and its people do not come first. They only care about themselves,” he says. ‘The world is laughing at us. It’s a shame.” French is still complaining as he lands and sounds apologetic. Then he boards the train to Bern with his brother. When he returns to Washington on Sunday, it is unclear whether his country will be able to govern normally again.