Is the West abandoning Ukraine? Iran: More than 260 arrests in 24 hours

Volodymyr Zelenskyj will give three speeches to various UN bodies in New York in the coming days. At the same time, he will meet other heads of state, including Olaf Scholz and Joe Biden. The president of Ukraine will ask for ammunition and weapons, especially long-range cruise missiles such as the American ATACMS – which have a range of 300 kilometers – and the German Taurus. The Ukrainian army already successfully uses British and French cruise missiles.

At the same time, Zelensky must try to convince the heads of state of the emerging countries of his case. The African representatives in particular are afraid of new famine disasters because the grain supply is severely limited as a result of the war.

Zelenskyj is required. In the West, the euphoria about the successes of the Ukrainians has disappeared. Because the hoped-for lightning victory in the counter-offensive failed to materialize, disillusionment is spreading. The voices that speak of a war of attrition with senseless victims are increasing.

Statements by US Commander-in-Chief Mark Milley have further fueled doubts. He recently said that Ukraine had only 30 to 35 days to make the counter-offensive a success. After that, weather conditions would make it impossible. However, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence, immediately contradicted: “We are not in Africa with a rainy period,” he explained.

In fact, Milley has now clarified his statements and confirmed the important strategic successes of the Ukrainians. At Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces apparently managed to recapture the strategically important towns of Klishkiiva and Andriivka. In the south they broke through the first Russian defense line at Zaporizhia. They have also used drone and cruise missile strikes to widely destroy Russian military equipment, such as a troop landing ship and a submarine in the port of Sevastopol.

Even before Milley’s unfortunate comments, there were already critical voices in the United States about the actions of the Ukrainian military. The New York Times and the Washington Post reported doubts about the Ukrainian strategy and complained that forces were deployed in a disorganized manner. This criticism was unwarranted and largely silent. For example, a commander of the 78th Regiment with the pseudonym Suleman told the Financial Times: “If I had followed the advice of Western experts, I would be dead now.”

The opinion has now become widespread that Ukrainian forces are slowly but surely closing in on their target, the Sea of ​​Azov, with their new tactics. There is also a growing view that this war is likely to last a long time. The reason is that it is a strange hybrid war:

On the one hand, the harsh trench warfare is reminiscent of the First World War. On the other hand, drones play a central role. They ensure that both sides know in real time what is happening on the battlefield and can respond immediately. This is also why attacks with large formations have become practically impossible.

War is a huge material struggle. This is why Vladimir Putin even begged North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un for arms supplies. If he is to take on the Russian bear, Zelensky still needs the West’s support, on a massive scale.

This support is in danger. In several EU countries, especially in the East, there are increasing voices calling for a halt to aid to Ukraine. Hungary’s Putin supporter, Viktor Orbán, had only reluctantly supported EU sanctions against Russia from the start. In Slovakia, Robert Fico may be re-elected prime minister at the end of October, and the populist has already declared that he will no longer supply cartridges to Ukraine.

In Bulgaria, pro-Russian populists are gaining ground, in Germany the AfD is on the rise. In talk shows, Sahra Wagenknecht is still allowed to stir up the mood against further arms deliveries, while Olaf Scholz postpones the delivery of the Taurus. The SPD comrades still seem to have difficulty giving up their affection for Russia.

What is crucial again, however, is what will happen in the US. Trump’s Republican base in particular is turning away from Ukraine. A CNN poll recently found that only about a third of Republicans still support aid to Ukraine. They therefore immediately want to hire Trump clones such as Vivek Ramaswamy. Trump himself boasts that he would end the war within 24 hours.

However, there are still important voices among Republicans who support Ukraine. For example, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell explains, “As long as Ukraine heroically defends its sovereignty and weakens Russia, it is not appropriate for us to give up.”

Overall, the Western alliance has held up surprisingly well so far, despite all the prophecies of doom. That’s a good thing, because peace talks with Putin are a waste of time. “Europe and the United States must show Putin that he is on the wrong track,” write Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage in ‘Foreign Affairs’. “Western indifference and impatience are Putin’s ultimate weapons in this war. Without that, he is at a strategic impasse.”