‘The attack is intended to once again show that Russia is incapable’ How Putin’s war machine is defying sanctions

Mykola Oleschtschuk left the next goal open. “The next thing is coming…” were the last words of a message from the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force on the Telegram portal. He also published a photo of the burning port of Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula.

According to Russian information, Ukraine fired ten cruise missiles at the famous port on Wednesday evening. The headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet is located there. Several ships and a submarine were reportedly hit. The information about the extent and severity of the damage differs from both sides.

“The port par excellence”

Sevastopol is not just another destination for Ukraine: the history of the Black Sea Fleet in the city’s port goes back more than 200 years, to the Russian Empire. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian soldiers were allowed to continue using the port. “This is the port par excellence for Russia,” said Christian Mölling of the German Council for Foreign Relations (DGAP) in an interview with t-online. The aim of the attack is to show that Ukrainian forces are moving closer to the peninsula annexed by Russia in violation of international law. How was it that Ukraine was able to successfully attack Russia at such an important point?

Mölling suspects that the attack is a symbol of the lack of communication within the Russian military apparatus: In fact, the Russian army should always be prepared for possible attacks from the air at such an important location: ‘You actually always have the anti-aircraft defense system in place. view. Because no one wants an expensive ship to sink after being hit. The Russian chain of command can be completely broken.”

It is also remarkable that Ukraine can do such damage to the Russian Navy, even though the country itself does not have a significant naval force: “Ukraine has no navy at all, but has already sunk or damaged a significant number of Russian ships. The attack is intended to once again demonstrate Russia’s incompetence.”

Billion dollar system destroyed

Another indication of this could be a new attack from Ukraine on Thursday: according to media reports, further explosions were reported in Crimea near the coastal city of Yevpatoria. A Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system is said to have been destroyed there – a weapon system worth the equivalent of 1.1 billion euros. According to Russian information, another ship of the Black Sea Fleet was attacked by naval drones.

At the same time, however, it can be assumed that an attack such as the one in Sevastopol with a relatively high number of cruise missiles will currently be the exception for Ukraine. “The main target for Ukrainian cruise missiles remains command centers and logistics. But such attacks have become more difficult,” says Mölling. The reason for this is simple: strategically important points such as the Crimean Bridge are better protected after several attacks than they were a few months ago.

It is also likely that Ukraine does not have a particularly large arsenal of cruise missiles. So far, only Britain (Storm Shadow) and France (SCALP) have supplied corresponding weapons. However, both countries have not yet provided information on specific figures. Similar weapons systems such as the short-range ATACMS missiles from the US or the Taurus cruise missiles requested from Germany have so far been withheld by governments in Washington and Berlin – even as pressure on the federal government increases.

“We will see other types of operations soon”

On Thursday, the three traffic light politicians Anton Hofreiter (Greens), Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP) and Andreas Schwarz (SPD) again spoke out in favor of a delivery in a letter to the federal government. There are also voices, especially within the SPD, that support Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s course: the German position and the questioning of possible arms deliveries. “I would not describe it as hesitant, but as cautious,” said SPD politician Ralf Stegner recently in Regarding a possible arms delivery. Taurus delivery t-online.

However, Ukraine has recently been able to achieve some successes even without German cruise missiles. In their offensive, the troops managed to liberate even more areas in the south of the country conquered by Russia. However, the soldiers are still far from a breakthrough to the Sea of ​​Azov.

Christian Mölling does not believe that the coming cold months will fundamentally stop the fighting. The rainy season in autumn, known as “Rasputiza”, is likely to cause the ground in many places to be so soft that many paths will no longer be passable.

In principle, this could limit Ukrainian attack efforts. However, there will then be more demand for other weapons: “We will soon see other types of operations. Both sides will likely rely more on drones.” For Russia, with temperatures dropping as they did last winter, Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure is likely to come under increasing pressure again.

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