Prigozhin travels merrily: what happens to Wagner after the uprising?

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After the near-coup in Russia, which was noticed around the world, she was declared near death. But the Wagner mercenary army of billionaire Yevgeny Prigoschin (62) is alive. A few days after the uprising, President Vladimir Putin, 70, received his ex-confidant Prigozhin and his commanders at the Kremlin and apparently discussed the future of the troops active in the war in Ukraine, Syria and Africa. Meanwhile, the Wagner people, whom Putin called “traitors” during the June 24 uprising, are acting with impunity and almost as if nothing had happened.

The Wagner fighters are now officially deployed in Belarus as military trainers for the ruler and Putin’s protege Alexander Lukashenko. In Russia, Kremlin chief Putin wants to bring order in view of the proliferation of the now 40 volunteer combat units. Parliament should create a legal basis for it – an undertaking that has failed in the past. Prigozhin always refused.

Russian state media showed raids against Prigozhin’s businesses in St. Petersburg and status symbols such as gold bars, wads of cash and medals from Russia and from Wagner’s operations in Africa. For days it seemed that Prigozhin and his Concord business empire would soon be a thing of the past. But he remains businesslike. Prigozhin earned billions by providing provisions for the army and always invested part of the profit in his operations in Africa, for example.

Dossier.Center: The Wagner brand will continue to exist for the time being

For weeks, investigative journalists from the Russian disclosure platform Dossier.Center have been observing Putin opponent Mikhail Khodorkovsky in his exile in London as Prigozhin’s plane tours between Africa, Russia and Belarus. Dossier.Center relies on its own informants in the ranks of Wagner, according to which Prigozhin himself remains in St. Petersburg and acts from there.

The 62-year-old has instructed himself and his Wagner team to take a break until early August. But immediately after the uprising, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also said that Moscow would not give up its interests in Africa. While in Syria, according to analyzes by Dossier.Center, the Russian Ministry of Defense is likely to take full control, Prigozhin would continue to exercise control over the Kremlin’s affairs in Africa.

“The military presence in the African states remains in the geopolitical interest of the Kremlin,” said Dossier.Center. In the end, Prigozhin could become the victor who saved not only his life, but also the hard core of his mercenaries. “The Wagner brand he founded will live on for a while.”

Gold and diamonds for the war chest

Prigozhin’s empire extends particularly far into the African continent: Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, Mozambique, Madagascar and Sudan are among the countries that Wagner supplied from mercenaries or disinformation experts, for example. In return, there are resources – including gold and diamonds. It was also believed that Russia used this to fill its war chest.

The Central African Republic and Mali, where more than 1,000 mercenaries are reportedly deployed, are particularly dependent on Wagner. The states overrun by rebels and terrorists rely on the Russians, even if that means a break with Western partners or even the United Nations. In the Central African capital Bangui stands a memorial to the mercenaries repeatedly accused of war crimes. They keep rebels in check and control parts of the economy worth billions.

Continuing the deal is vital for the governments. Details are secondary. “Russia gave us Wagner, the rest is none of our business,” a presidential adviser to the Central African Republic told the New York Times. A senior Wagner representative in the country also stated in a statement that aid to Central Africa would not end. Several flights between Mali and Russia would have been just regular rotations.

“As the turbulent period of talks between Putin and Prigozhin appears to be easing, Wagner’s operations in Africa are likely to continue without major changes,” said West Africa expert Mucahid Durmaz of the security consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. “Even in the unlikely event that Wagner is disbanded, Russia will be able to offer alternative private military companies to its client countries.” The governments threatened to become too dependent on the mercenaries. The power struggle could also impact Russia’s strategic support in Africa: “The mutiny will also undermine Putin’s image as the charismatic strongman who aggressively promoted Russia in its engagement on the continent.”

In Syria, Wagner stood for the proximity of the Russian state

Wagner’s mercenaries have been officially active in Syria since 2015. There they fight with the Russian army on the side of the Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad (57) – also to protect oil fields for the regime. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, about 2,000 mercenaries are currently stationed in the civil war-torn country.

The uprising in Prigozhin provoked immediate reactions in Syria. The Wagner force there had been warned that activities on the ground would be followed by airstrikes by the Syrian and Russian military, activists at the London-based observatory said. The mercenaries were given the choice of joining the Russian forces or leaving the country.

Political analyst Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center told the German news agency that their role in Syria is quite limited. Its strength in Syria is above all its “supposed proximity to the (Russian) state”. The break with the state will certainly affect their role in Syria, Ali said.

Along with Iran, Russia is the closest ally of the Damascus leadership in the Syrian civil war. Thanks in no small part to the Russian military operation, Assad’s supporters once again control about two-thirds of the country. (SDA)

Source: Blick