Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president in Putin’s long shadow

A failed uprising by Wagner Group mercenaries over the weekend pulled Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko out of Putin’s shadow Lukashenkofrom the shadow of his Russian colleague, Vladimir Putinfor the mediation he spent to stifle the biggest challenge to the Kremlin’s power in recent years.

Overnight, the Belarusian president became a mediator between the Russians. neither more nor less in between head of the Wagner group, Jevgenij Prigožinand the Russian presidency, an unimaginable role for an important, albeit minor, partner of the Kremlin.

Without a doubt, Lukashenko, who will celebrate 30 years in power in July, He will know how to use his contribution to solving the crisis caused by Prigozhin’s rebellion and Moscow’s inability to put an end to it once it started.

The Belarusian leader is a a shrewd politician and would never lose his job as a mediator and public face for nothing agreement that prevented a fratricidal armed confrontation in Russia with unforeseeable consequences.

Your debt to Putin

But Lukashenko remained in Putin’s debt: the Kremlin chief’s support was crucial for the Belarusian president’s regime to survive mass opposition protests after the 2020 presidential election, which his opponents and much of the international community denounced as a sham.

Russia’s economic and political support allowed the Belarusian president to rule his country with an iron hand, but greatly increased his dependence on Moscow.

Still, he resisted involving his country’s troops in Russia’s military campaign in neighboring Ukraine, even though the Russian military initially launched its failed offensive on Kiev from Belarusian territory.

Lukashenko already has experience as a mediator or facilitator of agreements for the Kremlin: in 2014 and 2015, he made Minsk available for ceasefire agreements in Donbass.

Also, in late February and early March 2022, a few days after the start of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine, he ceded Belarusian territory for the first Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, which did not bear fruit.

Too much importance for your mediation?

According to Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst and expert at the American think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the importance of Lukashenko’s mediation is exaggerated both by Minsk and by Moscow.

“Actually, Lukashenko’s role was most likely a technical one: to publicize agreements reached by more powerful mediators, which the Kremlin prefers to keep out of the public eye,” Shraibman wrote on his Telegram channel.

Putin’s former bodyguard and current governor of the Tula region is mentioned on social networks. Alexey Dyuminas one of the architects of the agreement with the leader of the Wagners.

Wagnerite columns advancing towards Moscow along the M-4 highway stopped just before reaching the southern administrative border of the Tula region, about 300 kilometers south of the Russian capital.

Shraibman believed that the announcement that Prigozhin was going into exile in Belarus in no way meant that the mercenary chief would remain in that country. “There’s nothing to do there”he emphasized.

In any case, he pointed out that whatever Lukashenko’s participation was, it will bear fruit in the near future, both within the country and in relations with Moscow.

The opposition sees an opportunity for its downfall

At the same time, the analyst warned that in the distant future the fate of Belarus will be determined by the rapture taken by the Russian regime, which was exposed by the rebellion last weekend. “the extent of his fragility, internal struggle and chaos”.

The Belarusian opposition in exile already believes that the situation created as a result of political instability in Russia will “provide an opportunity for Belarus to regain its freedom”.

In an interview for a political newspaper Gazeta Polska published this Monday, the former Minister of Culture Pavel Latushka assured that there has been a plan for a long time to predicting “scenarios like the one happening now”it will soon be “activated in Belarus” in order to “restore freedom” and overthrow Lukashenko’s regime.