Russia expert on the coup attempt: “The next few hours will be decisive” Zurich drops from 7th to 14th in Julius Baer’s millionaire ranking

These are dramatic hours in Russia. How is the situation at the moment?
Alexander Dubovy: Much clearer than yesterday, when you could still assume it was a Kremlin staging. At the latest after Vladimir Putin’s speech this Saturday, we can say with certainty that it is not a staging. It’s actually a military coup.

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner group would control Rostov-on-Don. Is that right?
Yes, that has been confirmed. Wagner has been in control of the metropolis since the early hours of the morning. They were able to enter Rostov unimpeded and took control of the main security buildings, especially the military buildings including the military airfield. The Wagner group has excellent skills, especially in urban combat. In the meantime we hear that she has settled in Rostov and wants to move on to Moscow from there

How will the Kremlin react to this?
You can look forward to that. Even the use of aircraft by the Kremlin against a Russian metropolis cannot be ruled out.

What does Prigozhin want? What are his goals?
Prigozhin wants to survive first of all. He claims he is fighting corruption, but the truth is that his survival is at stake. By July 1, all volunteer organizations must be incorporated into the Russian army and report to the Ministry of Defense. Without exceptions.​

That would mean the end of Wagner.
At least the end of Wagner as we know it. But definitely the end of Prigozhin. If he does not obey, his life is also no longer safe.

So his strategy is: attack is the best form of defense?
Yes, that’s his strategy now. If he wants to survive, he has no choice but to attack. Especially after Putin’s speech, he sees no other option. Prior to his speech, one could still speculate on which side Putin would side with, Prigozhin’s side or Defense Minister Shoigu’s side. Now everything is clear. And Prigozhin has been cleared for launch. His only option now is to flee forward.

Does this mean he’s really going to try to get into Moscow now?
In each case. He will certainly try. It’s the only thing that makes sense in his situation. Wagner will try to get to Moscow faster and see how far they get. What resistance do you encounter? How many supporters do they actually have in the military and security services? We don’t know that at the moment.

Is it all a spontaneous action?
It is likely that Prigozhin planned this military coup for a long time and very carefully. Some Telegram channels reported on Friday that Wagner soldiers reported to their relatives and bid them farewell – hours before Prigozchin even went public with the report that the Ministry of Defense had launched attacks on Wagner positions. That means that everything has been prepared for a long time. This was not a spontaneous action. And we can safely assume that Prigozhin can count on some support, both within the military and other security services, including domestic intelligence.

Wagner himself has about 25,000 soldiers. Is that correct?
Approximately, yes. A little more truth, but that’s the official figure. In addition, there are still many prisoners in their ranks.

What is the power relationship? How many soldiers does the Russian army have?
Putin has several hundred thousand troops he can deploy. Also about troops subordinate to the Ministry of the Interior, such as the National Guard. The 25,000 Wagner soldiers didn’t stand a chance against the Russian forces.

So Prigozhin needs support. Where could he find them?
We don’t know that yet, but that remains to be seen. He counts less on the support of the elite. Prigozhin is considered an outsider there. He is actually a criminal, then he set up a catering business and later he managed to establish contacts with the Kremlin and also personal connections with Putin. Only then was he offered to create a private mercenary army. He has few supporters within the elite. The most likely he can count on is support from the middle ranks of the Russian military and also from within certain volunteer groups.

What role does the secret service play?
It is impossible to say at the moment. But given that Prigozhin dared to take this step at all, we must assume that he does have some support. Probably not on the highest floors, but in the central building. Otherwise it would be an absolutely suicidal endeavor.

How dangerous is it for Vladimir Putin?
The next few hours will be crucial. But I think we can assume that Putin will emerge victorious from this conflict. He has all the resources. He is also the much better leader for the elite, less problematic than Prigozhin. The essential question is how long the conflict will last.

Can Putin come out of this situation even stronger, or will damage somehow remain?
Massive damage remains for Putin regardless of the outcome. Even if Wagner is completely destroyed now, extreme damage will remain. Putin’s monopoly on the use of force has slipped from his hands. He has introduced numerous repressive laws in recent months. And suddenly he has no control over a person who has had direct contact with him for at least some time and who he assumed was personally loyal to him. That’s a punch to Putin’s stomach. And it’s a huge loss of reputation. We also need to see how people react when Russian planes actually attack Rostov. We are on the verge of a civil war in Russia. The question is whether this threshold is actually exceeded. Probably not, at least not yet. But the loss of reputation for Putin is huge. And that will certainly have a very strong impact on the future of Russia. A dissolution of the country can no longer be ruled out in the long term. We are now on the verge of some truly remarkable events in Russia.

What does all this mean for Ukraine?
Immediately: nothing. Of course, it is an advantage for Ukraine if internal disputes arise in Russia. But we cannot know the full extent of the conflict in Russia. The attacks on Ukraine will continue for the time being, tonight there were again attacks on the capital Kiev. This doesn’t stop. The main thing is that it doesn’t matter if it’s Putin or Prigozhin, both want to continue this war. Prigozhin is also a war criminal, a warmonger. He doesn’t want the war to end.

(aargauerzeitung.ch)