The peace brokers have a trump card: the chance of the African mission is great

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China, Turkey, Brazil: Several states that do not take a clear position in the war in Ukraine have tried to stop Moscow’s aggression with talks and proposals. All were unsuccessful.

Now a new mediator has emerged with Africa to end the war in Europe. The group includes South Africa, Egypt, Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Senegal, Zambia and the Comoros.

South African naval exercise with Russia

The delegation is led by South Africa, which managed to negotiate a ceasefire in the Ethiopian Tigray war at least by 2022. South Africa is considered Russia’s most important African ally, but it is also one of the most important American allies.

During apartheid, Moscow had supported the liberation movement led by the African National Congress (ANC) by providing military training. Together, the two countries belong to the Brics Alliance, which also includes Brazil, India and China. As late as February, South Africa held naval exercises off the coast with Russia and China. By leading a peace delegation, South Africa probably also hopes to placate the West.

Fear that Russia will carry out the threat

The African countries’ peace initiative includes a ten-point plan to achieve a ceasefire and end belligerent Russia. The plan states that negotiations should start as soon as possible. He also states that the sovereignty of states must be guaranteed in accordance with the UN statute. Exactly how this should be carried out and further details of the plan are not known.

Neither Ukraine nor Russia have started the proposed negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (45) rejected negotiations as long as Russia does not withdraw its troops from Ukraine in any case. Russian President Vladimir Putin (70) found polite words for the ‘balanced African approach’, but rejected essential elements.

The famine may have provided the impetus for the peace agreement. Combined with the current record drought – especially in the Horn of Africa – it has been further exacerbated by a lack of grain from Ukraine and a lack of fertilizer from Russia. In more developed countries, such as Egypt, food shortages are reflected in skyrocketing prices.

If Russia carries out its threat and pulls out of the grain deal, the suffering in Africa would be even greater. The agreement guarantees that grain ships can pass through the Black Sea without being attacked.

Important asset

The individual states have hardly any international weight. Still, they have a trump card up their sleeve. Together they represent a continent that, thanks to resources and manpower, will play an important international role in the near future. Superpowers such as China, the US, Russia and the EU have long competed for influence and natural resources.

Even if the peace plan of the African states also threatens to fail, they must at least be able to persuade Moscow to allow grain exports and prevent the misery in Africa from getting worse.

Source: Blick