Belarusian head of state Alexander Lukashenko (68) said Belarus and Russia will set up joint troops on Monday. It is still unclear to what extent the military support will take place. For experts, however, a joint troop formation does not necessarily mean a war effort. The main thing is to increase the pressure on Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the war in February, there has been repeated speculation about Belarus’ participation in the war. On Monday, the Belarusian head of state announced that he had ordered the deployment of the troops.
Only: for Vladimir Putin’s (70) vassal Lukashenko, such a step would also be risky. The territory of Belarus has so far mainly served as a staging post for the Russian armed forces. From there, for example, they can more easily approach the Ukrainian capital Kiev.
Smaller army than Ukraine
But what could the Belarusian military really achieve in the event of war if it rushed to Russia’s side as a possible third party in the war?
Compared to the size of the Russian army, which can muster about 900,000 active soldiers, only between 45,000 and 65,000 soldiers serve in Belarus – depending on the source. That is considerably less than Ukraine can afford. About 197,000 people serve there. 290,000 reservists are still available in Belarus – 40,000 more than in Ukraine.
In 2018, the military in Belarus bought new Tor short-range anti-aircraft missiles. But it is unlikely that these will play a decisive role in the war against Ukraine. Because the chance that Ukraine will fly missions against Belarus with its remaining fighter jets is negligible.
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And yet the Belarusian Air Force could support the Russian armed forces. Belarus owns, among others, MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-25 fighter jets. In addition, it has an air fleet that can also assist logistics every now and then.
The Belarusian army is designed for Russian military technology. In other words, it was not primarily their own weapons systems that were developed, but most of the weapons in Lukashenko’s army’s arsenal were manufactured in Russia. For example, the main battle tank of Belarus, the T-72B, is a war equipment that was first manufactured in Soviet times. Despite all the uncertainty about verifiable information, Belarus is said to have about 500 more.
Although there are many indications that much of the Belarusian equipment is outdated or at least not very modern anymore, Lukashenko’s army would have an advantage if the Russians supported it: equipment and systems are compatible with the Russian . In this way, Belarusian troops could be involved in the war against Ukraine in a technically and organizationally simple way.
Belarus could only help Russia to a limited extent
Whether this will actually happen remains to be seen. The modest economic resources do not really allow the country to rearm quickly. Moreover, if the Belarusian army actually goes to war against Ukraine, it will only help the Russians to a limited extent. Because experts estimate the military strength of Lukashenko’s troops as low.
For example, political scientist Michael Staack (63) tells Blick: “The Belarusian army has limited combat capacity, it cannot be used for offensive operations. It will not be able to help Russia decisively. At most, it can open a new front for Ukraine.” In addition, the Belarusian population does not want to be involved in the war. And last but not least, Belarus’ entry into the war would mean further shifting the fronts towards NATO’s outer border. (oco)