What does the dam burst mean for Ukraine, Crimea and the occupied territories: brutal Russian tactics or a shot in the foot?

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Tanks, bombs and now a gigantic tidal wave: the war in Ukraine has reached a new dimension. After a heavy explosion at the Nova Kakhovka dam, billions of liters of water flow through the Dnipro to the Black Sea. In addition to the city of Kherson, about 80 other cities are affected by the threat of flooding.

Kiev and Moscow blame each other for blowing up the dam. However, there is also speculation that the dam may have ruptured due to poor maintenance.

The flood is just one of the dire consequences. Because the lake – which contains almost five times the water mass of the much deeper Lake Zurich – provides a large area with drinking water, water for the irrigation of fruit, rice and wine and other agricultural products. It is important for fishing and shipping. It also supplies water for the hydroelectric power plant, which has since been destroyed, and cooling water for the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia.

Neutral observers believe that Russia is responsible for the dam breach. Gerhard Mangott (56), Russia and security expert at the University of Innsbruck (A), tells Blick: “The aim could be to prevent an advance of the Ukrainians across the Dnipro for weeks.” This would allow the Russians to withdraw their defensive line at this point and focus on other locations for the Ukrainian counter-offensive.

state of emergency among the Russians

But by blowing up the dam, the Russians shot themselves in the foot. Because the flood also affects the Russian-occupied southern side of the river, if not more severely. According to Russia-appointed mayor of Nowa Kakhovka, Vladimir Leontyev, 600 houses in three cities were hit in the first hours after the blast. The Russian occupiers have declared a state of emergency.

The destruction of the dam is also likely to affect drinking water supplies in the occupied territories, especially in dry Crimea. In 2014, the Kachowka Reservoir supplied 85 percent of the water for the peninsula through the 400-kilometer North Crimean Canal.

After the annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainians built a dam on the canal to close off the peninsula from the water. However, shortly after the start of the 2022 invasion, the Russians blew up this barrier.

“The Crimean peninsula could go without water for years,” 51-year-old Mykhailo Podolyak of the Ukrainian presidential office told CNN. He called the incident a “global ecological catastrophe”. Several animals and ecosystems would be endangered in the coming hours. Mayor Vladimir Leontyev also admitted on Russian state television that there could now be problems with the water supply in Crimea.

Fear of nuclear catastrophe

The cooling of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant occupied by the Russians also threatens to become a problem. An interruption of the water supply would affect the cooling system. In extreme cases, a nuclear accident is imminent. On Tuesday, however, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) tweeted that “there was no immediate risk to the nuclear safety of the nuclear power plant.”

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (64) called the attack “a new dimension” in the war. EU Council President Charles Michel (47) speaks of a “war crime”. And NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, 64, summed up: “This is a scandalous act that once again demonstrates the brutality of Russia’s war in Ukraine.”

Source: Blick