Key dates Sergio Massa is watching: IMF, PASO and 2023 elections

After exceeding the goals third reviewthe economic team that leads Sergio Massa is on track to close the last one in 2022 for focus on goals for the year in which election pressure will be added.

While waiting for the official announcement by International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fr easing the accumulation of reserves that Massa negotiated during his time in the G20 with the head of the organization, Kristalina Georgievaprivate report reflects this The government should focus on the objectives of the first quarter for the achievement of PASO and those of the second quarter for the general.

In parallel with the election activity, this is also shown by the calendar with the IMF On March 10, the results of the goals for the fourth quarter of 2022 will be announced.which motivated Argentina’s request for flexibility in the accumulation of reserves to achieve approval of the agency and consequently the payment of foreign currency.

The goals of the first tranche of the current year will arrive June 10, just before the start Primary, open, simultaneous and mandatory (KORK) and to close the lists on the 24th of the same month.

Then the results of the next examination scheduled for September 10it will be known not long after general elections that, according to the law, the fourth Sunday in October, which falls on the 22nd this year.

goals in the election calendar

In this scenario, from Center for Argentine Political Economy (CEPA) warned that The IMF’s target for the first quarter is around 0.26% of GDP, while only 0.12% was accumulated in January.which “complicates” compliance, although a high write-off of floating debt in the same month would make it possible “greater margin of action”.

In addition, the report reflects this revenues fell 3% in the first month of 2023 and accumulate a quarter followed by actual declines. As a result of the drought and early liquidation that produced the “soy dollar,” the decline in foreign trade rights pushed the total amount to negative levels.

In relationship with monetary target the report explains that it is “extraordinary” overturning achieved in the most important placement of December 2022 ensures compliance with the monetary target in the last quarter of the year, but, a $1 trillion debt payment in January again left international reserves below the March target.

In addition, after the implementation of special schemes to attract dollars from the agro-export sector, The central bank (BCRA) again took on a selling role which cannot breathe against the meager contribution of the field.

The impact of the drought on exports could reach more than US$12 billion in the worst case scenario, and if rain comes, this reduction could be between US$6 and 9 billion.; a scenario which far from achieving the $4.8 billion accumulation as predicted, he predicts loss of reserves between 1.2 and 5 billion dollars.

unique relief

In contrast to the effect of the drought, from July 2023, the grand opening of the pipeline could mark reduction of gas imports.

According to the official plan, the first phase will stop the import of gas in the summer months and replace about 1/3 of the import made in the winter at a significantly lower price.

With the completion of the second tranche, it could stop importing gas avoid going out 3,100 million dollars a year and reduce the purchase of heating oil-diesel, which can represent a significant improvement in the trade balance of this sector.

Namely, if the work deadlines are met, The gas pipeline will save 650 million dollars through import substitutionbut Total foreign exchange savings will reach USD 1.5 billion by 2022 due to falling LNG prices on the international market.

In this context, which predicts a negative balance, due to drought and weaker economic activity, and with the ongoing pre-election agenda, The Federal Administration of Public Revenue (AFIP) focuses on other export sectors such as fishing, mining and the automotive industry overcome the fiscal deficit which showed the first month of the year.