20 degrees in October, canceled ski races – what’s happening this winter? Three predictions

Temperatures above 20 degrees and a zero-degree line about to rise above 3,300 meters are not only a problem for the ski circuit in Zermatt, but also for nature and especially the glaciers.

At the same time, a looming energy crisis is smoldering over us. And all of Europe hopes that the above-average temperatures that 2022 has brought us so far will continue.

In the coming winter, as the economy would say, there is therefore a trade-off of what we can hope for more: When it warms up, there will be little snowfall at high altitudes. That would be bad for glaciers and nature – but good for us because we would have lower heating costs. Or it will be cold, preferably with a lot of precipitation, and the glaciers can recover a bit during that time. For this we could rattle in a horrendous heating bill and energy bottlenecks.

Which variant will it be? We take a – more or less serious – approach.

Numerous farming rules link events in the summer with a prediction for the winter. We have chosen four.

St. Jakobi is on July 25, also known as St. James’ Day. It is not surprising for this summer that Switzerland experienced a warm day with more than 30 degrees on St. Jakobi 2022. It is the first indication of a hard, cold winter.

This pawn rule is also based on opposites. A look at the statistics tells us: The first week of August was warm. At least until August 5, when the maximum temperature was around or above 30 degrees on all days. After that, the summer experienced a temporary malaise with maximum temperatures of only 23 degrees. Nevertheless, we judge it as follows: According to this farmer’s rule, we can expect a lot of snow especially towards the end of winter.

This line gives hope to all Christmas fans: As “MeteoNews” wrote in early October and we may still remember, September 2022 came with countless thunderstorms. Throughout Switzerland, the month was too wet as it was covered in storms. “Due to repeated thunderstorm seasons, the monthly target was sometimes reached after 10 days,” reports the Meteo blog.

October 2022 was too wet in many places, but the bottom line was normally sunny. But: “In terms of temperature, it is an October of superlatives,” writes “MeteoNews”. The provisional balance on October 25: On average, temperatures in Switzerland were 3.2 degrees above the long-term average. If the farmer’s rule is correct, there is no doubt that we will have a “harsh” winter.

Conclusion: Because the weather was exceptionally warm and beautiful this summer, we have a blatant winter according to many farmers’ rules – expect a lot of snow and cold. Can this prediction be confirmed?

This past weekend, Muotathal’s weather forecasters gathered for their traditional fall gathering. They presented their predictions for winter and spring.

Virtually all weather forecasters doubt that the snow will be high around “Christmas”. With the exception of Karl Hediger, also known as “Naturmensch” (“It can’t be whiter than this!”), everyone predicts that the second half of December will be too warm and interspersed with foehn, and winter will start late because of that.

Five of the six weather forecasters also agree on the amount of snow: There will be plenty. For example, Martin Horat (nicknamed “weather missionary”) says that winter will tend to snow and “the glaciers may grow again.”

As for temperatures throughout the winter, none of the six weather forecasters wanted to take to the branches. After all, almost everyone predicts that the February 2023 cold and partly interspersed with bise will be.

According to three of Muotathal’s six weather forecasters, not only winter but also spring is a long way off. For example, Alois Holdener (“Tann Kegel”) says that spring in 2023 will not be the fastest, “he continues to hesitate”. And Martin Holdener also predicts for March: “You might think that winter is just beginning, snow up to the throat.” The other three weathermen, as the Innerschwyzers are also called, see spring coming in time.

Conclusion: If most weather forecasters live up to their name, a green Christmas is followed by a late, but rather cold and snowy winter. The men disagree about how long the snow will stay with us until spring.

The weather forecasts are only really accurate for the coming days. Still, there are models that try to make predictions over months. They are based less on current weather patterns than on major climate changes. Such long-term weather forecasts are getting better, but their inaccuracy and the many uncertainties with such long time intervals should not be underestimated.

The models use many variables as the basis for long-term predictions, including the position and movement of the jet stream and different air pressure systems. In addition, in 2022 (and probably also in 2023) the possible development of the ocean temperatures for the third La Niña year in a row will be decisive. Because: Winters during La Niña in Europe are usually warmer than usual.

Institutes such as the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in the US make medium to long-term forecasts for precipitation, pressure distribution and temperatures. In addition to the NCEP, there are other, mostly state, weather institutes that make such forecasts: for example the German Weather Service or the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

What do the researchers see in store for us this winter? Well: you see it differently than the rules of our farmer or the weather forecasters.

This graph shows the average of the results of the forecasts from different institutes. The temperatures are calculated in the winter months of December, January and February. Switzerland is just in the zone for one positive deviation from 0.5 to one degree is predicted.

If you look at the results of the European Weather Institute, it shouldn’t be that hot. The ECMWF calculates one for Central Europe relatively normal winter. Switzerland is just slightly above the median, but not much (between 0 and 0.5 degrees).

It is important to note that the months of December, January and February are added together. So it may well be that a single month is more out of line.

If the forecast for precipitation is correct, Switzerland will experience a relatively normal winter in this regard as well. But there won’t be much snow – Preferably just below average quantities.

Conclusion: Science contradicts the almost natural weather observers: the models speak of a normal to mild winter with a tendency to too little precipitation.

While it is 2:1 for traditional forecasters when it comes to winter forecasts, a generally mild winter with little snow can be expected. Nevertheless, the results of the research institutes are not without doubt about this long period – even if they all correctly predicted the hot summer.

No matter how winter ends – there will be a “winner”. In the case of a warm winter, that’s our wallet. And when it’s cold and snowing, it’s the glaciers.