The climate has already warmed by 1.14 degrees

In the decade from 2013 to 2022, global warming has already reached an increase of 1.14 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. This is the conclusion of a study presented on Thursday at the UN climate conference in Bonn.

The scientists warn in the journal “Earth System Science Data” that warming is now increasing at a rate of more than 0.2 degrees per decade. For the period from 2010 to 2019, the value was 1.07 degrees.

As a result, an intensification of many weather and climate extremes can be observed, especially more frequent and intense heat extremes and heavy precipitation in most parts of the world. “Rapid and strict reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, however, could halve the rate of warming over the next 20 years,” the scientists say. The most recent data showed that the increase in global greenhouse gas emissions had already slowed somewhat.

“We need to change our policies and approaches in light of the latest knowledge about the state of the climate system,” says project coordinator Piers Forster. “Time is no longer on our side. Access to up-to-date information is crucial.” According to the experts, neither the speed nor the scale of climate measures are currently sufficient to limit the escalation of climate-related risks.

According to the analysis presented, the remaining carbon budget, the amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees with a probability of more than 50 percent, has been halved within three years. According to IPCC calculations, the remaining carbon budget in 2020 was about 500 gigatons of carbon dioxide. At the beginning of 2023, that was only half with about 250 gigatons of carbon dioxide.

The UN climate conference in Bonn is preparing for the world climate conference in Dubai at the end of this year. An inventory will also be made of the progress made in limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times. Given previous efforts to protect the climate, this goal is seen as increasingly unrealistic.

The US climate agency NOAA had just announced record values ​​for CO2 in the atmosphere at its monitoring station in Hawaii. The average value for May 2023 was the highest monthly value ever recorded. Accordingly, a CO2 concentration of 424.0 ppm (parts of CO2 per million parts) was measured, about 3 ppm more than in the same month last year. The values ​​are generally particularly high in May. CO2 levels are now 50 percent higher than before the start of the industrial era, the authority said.

“Each year we see carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere rising as a direct result of human activity,” said bureau chief Rick Spinrad. Burning fossil fuels for transportation and power generation, cement production, deforestation and agriculture are some of the reasons for this increase. The greenhouse gas CO₂ traps the heat radiated by the Earth’s surface that would otherwise escape into space. As a result, the atmosphere warms up. Extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, forest fires or precipitation are on the rise.

(yam/sda/dpa)