Study: The Arctic could be ice-free in summer as early as the 2030s

Even in a low-carbon scenario, the Arctic could be ice-free in summer a decade sooner than previously thought. This is the conclusion of a study in the journal “Nature Communications”.

“The results show that regardless of emission scenarios, the first sea ice-free September will already occur in the 2030s to 2050s,” write the authors, led by South Korean researcher Min Seung Ki of Pohang University of Science and Technology.

For their prediction, the researchers evaluated the measurement data from each calendar month between 1979 and 2019 and first compared it with simulated changes. Arctic sea ice extent reaches its summer minimum in mid-September. “The Arctic sea ice area has been shrinking rapidly in recent decades, with an ever-increasing decrease since 2000,” says the team, which includes climate researcher Dirk Notz of the University of Hamburg.

The results of the study go beyond the most recent assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). As a result, the Arctic would not be practically ice-free in September on average until mid-century – albeit in medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

In contrast, the researchers led by Min conclude from their observational prediction “that we could experience an unprecedented ice-free Arctic climate over the next ten or two decades, regardless of the emissions scenario.”

According to the researchers, this would have implications for human societies and ecosystems inside and outside the Arctic. The ice-covered Arctic is a habitat for numerous animal species such as polar bears, seals and migratory birds. An ice-free Arctic would change the living conditions of these species. The ice in the Arctic also plays an important role in regulating the global climate system, as it reflects sunlight, helping to cool the atmosphere. When the ice melts, less sunlight is reflected. This could accelerate global temperature rise.

It is now important to prepare for a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future and plan accordingly, the authors wrote in the study. (sda/dpa)