Data backs up Yakin: Was the Nati’s qualifying campaign really that bad?

Statistically speaking, Switzerland is a top country

Because the data says: Switzerland is statistically a top country: under Yakin, the national team achieved the second highest expected goals value (xG) of all countries in European Championship qualifying (25.45). Only Portugal (27.31) created more promising scoring opportunities. The problem: Measured by the quality of the chances, the national team scored too few goals (22). So there was a lack of efficiency. It should be noted that both Switzerland and Portugal were divided into one of three groups of six. Only five teams played in seven groups.

Switzerland conceded eleven goals, which is more than unqualified Montenegro or Kosovo. But judging by the quality of the scoring chances allowed, Switzerland should have scored significantly fewer goals. The value of 5.53 expected goals against (xGA) is top class in international comparison. The discrepancy can be explained by several factors: bad luck, the opponent’s efficiency or individual mistakes, such as that of the goalkeeper.

Lots of good opportunities up front, few at the back. These are normally the ingredients for success, which statistically should have happened. The expected points statistic indicates how many points a team should collect if all expected goals and goals conceded were scored. Here Switzerland gets no less than 24.7 points instead of 17 points. This is another top value. Of all countries, only Portugal should have earned more points (25.4). It should also be noted that countries such as Spain, France, England and Belgium could score a maximum of 24 points.

Lots of ball possession – but beyond that?

Yakin also achieved top results for his team in terms of play. The percentage of ball possession averaged 69.3 percent. The second best value of all countries, after Spain (71.9 percent). The only thing is: you can’t buy a lot of ball possession. It’s about getting the ball into the danger zone. And this is where the national team comes into their own: they completed a total of 800 passes (73.85 per 90 minutes) in the final third – which is the second-best value of all countries, after Denmark (896).

A similar picture emerges with space-saving passes. Here too, the national team is the second best country with a total of 850 passes (78.46 per 90 minutes). When it comes to space gain with the ball, Switzerland is also at the top of Europe and even occupies first place (286/26.4 per 90 minutes). When it comes to the measure of key passes, that is, passes after which the teammate receiving the ball has a finishing opportunity (65 total, 6 per 90 minutes), it is number 2 behind France.

These are strong values, but are also helped by the defensive attitude of the opponents. But creating verticality is not easy, especially against deep teams like Belarus or Kosovo. The Swiss did that. That means: the national team has done many things well in terms of play.

What can Yakin be accused of?

Only: if everything had really gone well, Switzerland would have significantly more points, be the group winner and be placed in pot one. We are still far from that. Is it all just bad luck? That would be too easy. What can Yakin be accused of?

Some personnel decisions would have to be made. In addition to the sometimes strange nominations (or non-nominations) at the fullback position, it is important to take a closer look at the lack of efficiency in attack. Due to the absence of Breel Embolo, the ice-cold Knisper was missing, especially when Zeki Amdouni, the shooting star of the spring, ended up in a crisis of form.

Cedric Itten, Andi Zeqiri and Noah Okafor scored one goal together, Haris Seferovic was eliminated by Yakin and only played for half an hour. Haris Tabakovic was allowed to switch to the Bosnian association. Ironically, no country hit more crosses in the European Championship qualifiers than Switzerland (228) – so a 1.98m giant like Hertha’s top scorer wouldn’t have hurt as a receiver in the box.

The issue of lack of change can also be used against Yakin. With the exception of qualifying top scorer Amdouni and Dan Ndoye, young players were not systematically included this year. It is therefore not surprising that the national team had the sixth oldest team in the European Championship qualifying with an average age of 28.4 years.

*Data source Wyscout