High turnout in elections appears – who does this help?: The 13th AHV pension electrifies people

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The 13th AHV pension is making people excited: there are signs of an above-average turnout for the vote on March 3. This is evident from the figures from various cities and municipalities on the return of voting envelopes to date.

In the city of St. Gallen, for example, turnout was just under 39 percent on Tuesday, with a turnout of 55 to 58 percent expected by Sunday. In Berneck SG, the return rate was 35 percent on Monday – ​​and therefore more than 11 percent above the long-term average.

In Davos GR, 31 percent of the envelopes have arrived so far. That is why the authorities expect a turnout of “well above 50 percent”. The city of Zurich has also already received 38 percent, as has more than 30 percent in Geneva. In the city of Lucerne, 32 percent have already put the envelope in the mail. In Basel it was even 40 percent on Tuesday.

Parties are nervous

“There is an above-average turnout of more than 50 percent, in some cities even more than 60 percent,” political scientist Lukas Golder (49) from the GFS Bern research institute told Blick. There should be another significant boost on voting Sunday.

There is a lot of nervousness among the parties in Federal Bern, because the outcome of the vote is likely to be close. The second SRG trend survey promises a true crime thriller with a 53 percent yes! In the lobby of the Federal Palace, the AHV vote is the big topic – some are convinced that the initiative will overcome the hurdle, others believe it will fail, at least because of the majority of votes. “It’s getting tight, now it’s a matter of mobilization,” was the tenor.

Strong mobilization in cities

But who benefits from a high turnout? “This vote is usually on the yes side,” says expert Golder. “Especially because there is an enormous mobilization visible in the cities.”

The situation reminds him of the 2021 elections, which were still dominated by the corona pandemic, when the average turnout was a very high 57.4 percent. “There have been huge waves of mobilization in recent days, and that is also possible this time.”

Also popular in rural areas

This is also due to the fact that the initiative does not correspond to the classic left-right scheme. The request is also popular in national and conservative circles.

Those who believe that too much money flows abroad and that the Swiss people benefit from something. For Golder it is clear: “Even if the SVP mobilizes in the countryside, this does not automatically benefit the No camp.”

Against the trend?

Normally, popular initiatives lose support in the course of the voting campaign, because the other side points out the weak points and can thus create uncertainty. This time too, the surveys show a decline – which does not necessarily mean that this trend will continue.

“Due to the strong mobilization, an atypical course of this initiative is conceivable,” says Golder. “For example, because it could create more protest votes.” Moreover, the yes camp acts more professionally in a large digital network and has been preparing the way for the purchasing power debate for some time now.

Will that be enough for a yes vote on March 3? Golder doesn’t want to make a prediction. “It can still tilt to either side,” he says. “Especially if there are more states, every vote can count.”

Source:Blick