Forecasts completely wrong: Significantly fewer changes at health insurers than predicted

class=”sc-cffd1e67-0 iQNQmc”>

When then SP Minister of Health Alain Berset (51) announced a significant increase in health insurance premiums last fall, the comparison portals had their moment. The website bonus.ch predicted that 35 percent of policyholders planned to change. And Felix Schneuwly, health insurance expert at Comparis, dared to predict at SRF that “about 15 percent” will probably change their basic insurer in 2024.

Miscalculating comparison portals

Both were completely wrong, as we now see. The Swiss are apparently much less price sensitive when choosing an insurer than the research shows. According to Santésuisse, about 800,000 policyholders changed health insurance funds in the new year, which corresponds to about 8.8 percent. For its estimate, the health insurer counted the newly printed health cards and adjusted the result: lost cards and mergers between providers were not taken into account. “This means that we can quantify quite accurately how high the share of people switching actually is,” says Christoph Kilchenmann, chief economist at Santésuisse.

A year earlier, the comparison portals were noticeably wrong. A comparative study at the time showed that approximately 27 percent of insured people wanted to change providers in 2023. According to Santésuisse, that was actually only 7.6 percent, or three and a half times less.

Often still satisfied with the insurance

One can only speculate about the reasons why surveys and reality are so far apart. One thing is certain: many people who switch are worth gold to the comparison portals. If someone orders an offer through an associated website, the creators of the portal make money. Kilchenmann says, “Depending on the sender, these surveys are intended to encourage as much change as possible.” Anyone who reads it might think to themselves, “If everyone does it, I can switch too.” But an intention is not a signature: “On closer inspection, many people realize that they are quite satisfied with their provider.”

Another reason for the discrepancy can also be found in the user profiles. Younger, Internet-savvy people often participate in online surveys. And younger people generally change providers more often than older people. The latter may already have experience with their insurance company, which strengthens the bond. Santésuisse chief economist Kilchenmann: “Boys who are healthy miss out on this experience – as a result, they are more willing to change.”

After Comparis was significantly wrong with its prediction in the autumn of 2022, it decided not to conduct a study last year. The comparison portal also wants to refrain from these studies in the future. “They ultimately damage our credibility,” says Felix Schneuwly. The Comparis expert explains the inflated forecasts by saying that people who are not interested in switching will not participate in the surveys. He considers the almost nine percent of changers that Santésuisse identified as an understatement: “It’s more than ten percent.”

Source:Blick