Hans-Ulrich Bigler and Zeno Staub: The business celebrities speculated during the elections

Based on the new method developed by professors Simon Lüchinger, Mark Schelker and Lukas Schmid from the universities of Lucerne and Freiburg, it becomes clear how wrong the election losers among them were and why. Two examples.

The well-known former trade union director Hans-Ulrich Bigler (SVP) lacked an extremely large number of list votes to be elected, more specifically 330,306. The number seems high, but it is true.

Something similar happened to Vontobel boss Zeno Staub (center). The banker, who is used to success, was 279,615 list votes short of winning the seat.

Against this background, it is striking that both business stars relied on one and the same marketing strategy: they placed themselves at the top of their own sub-selection list and wanted to leverage the business connection and let their business networks play a role. With this tactic they hoped to get into the ranks. Bigler and Staub both targeted a business-savvy audience and focused their advertisements on economic topics.

However, this marketing strategy did not pay off in the 2023 elections. On the contrary: running for elections on your own sub-electoral list and emphasizing the economic connection – this plan ended in a fiasco.

It is better to be on the party’s main election list

However, for other business leaders who were on the party’s main electoral list, the candidacy was more worthwhile. Two examples are the IAZI boss Donato Scognamiglio (for the EPP) and the Swissmem director Stefan Brupbacher (for the FDP). They narrowly missed election to the National Council. The IAZI man missed 8,857 votes, the Swissmem representative was only 8,009 votes short. That’s a few per thousand of the voter potential. By comparison, the canton of Zurich has 970,000 voters.

The electoral system does not favor economic electoral lists

One reason for Bigler and Staub’s failure is the electoral system. When it comes to list connections, it mathematically favors the candidates on the dominant electoral list.

In concrete terms, Bigler’s SME list was in combination with the SVP’s main electoral list. SVP voters mainly put this election list in the ballot box. Bigler’s SME list is estimated to have only been viewed about 2,000 times. However, approximately 11,200 voters would have been needed to enter the entire list. The difference amounts to the absence of an estimated 9,200 lists for a place in the National Council. The calculation goes as follows: 9,200 additional electoral lists times 36 votes per list, which amounts to approximately 330,000 list votes. This was the only way Bigler would have received the necessary list votes to become a member of the National Council.

But now Bigler’s SME list was empty. Because he was far below that, the SVP’s main electoral list ‘sucked’ the votes away from the sub-electoral lists and the candidates on the main electoral lists, such as Thomas Matter and Gregor Rutz, received all the seats of the National Council.

Bigler can’t even hope to ever be a replacement for a resigned SVP member. This is because his SME list did not win a single seat.

The same goes for centrist candidate Zeno Staub. His party was successful in the canton of Zurich. She received the most votes on the main electoral list and won two additional seats in the National Council. But Staub himself came away empty-handed because he was on his own list. His partial voting list was only submitted about 5,000 times. To win, about 8,000 additional voters would have needed to cast his sub-ballot list. Only in this way would Staub have achieved the missing 280,000 list votes. The calculation goes as follows: 8,000 lists times 36 votes per list, resulting in 288,000 list votes.

Only move up the main party list

The fact that other business leaders successfully entered their party’s main electoral list is a great advantage for them. You can move on to the National Council if a member of the same cantonal party resigns.

IAZI boss Scognamiglio is the first replacement on the EVP list for the elected Nik Gugger. Stefan Brupbacher is the third substitute in the five-member FDP delegation from Zurich.

Christofüger from St. Gallen is the first replacement for the cantonal FDP if Marcel Doppler or Susanne Vincenz-Stauffacher were to resign early. He was only 13,639 votes short.

No hope if the party leaves completely

However, Genevan entrepreneur and dentist Michel Matter cannot hold out hope; he runs a dental treatment chain. Matter ranked first on the Green Liberals’ main party list. But his party fell out of favor with voters. It received too few list votes compared to the other parties. The Green Liberals and thus Matter dropped out of Geneva’s twelve-member representation in the National Council.