Pensions, health insurance, climate, immigration, EU: this is what the SVP’s victory means for the next four years

The SVP has 62 seats in the National Council – with allies from Lega, EDU and MCG that would be 67. But it is still unclear whether the smallest parties will join the SVP. Even with the 28 FDP seats, there is still a long way to go to achieve the absolute majority of 101 votes. And even then, civil majorities are not always possible, as the legislature from 2015 to 2019 showed.

The right has become stronger, but in many cases the center with party leader Gerhard Pfister (61) remains decisive. He continued to expand his power. Whether the civil cooperation demanded by the SVP works more effectively depends on the whims of the center.

Major decisions will be made in key areas over the next four years. A look shows where the shift to the right will have an impact – and where it won’t.

The SVP played the migration card again and again – and thus won the elections. She is now demanding even more concessions and a stricter asylum policy. With a good chance of being accommodated by the FDP and the center. A stricter pace in the asylum sector is likely. For example, it is conceivable that there will be more pressure to return rejected asylum seekers. At best, also by reducing social benefits for asylum seekers.

However, demand for asylum transit zones at the border will likely remain difficult. The same applies to the return to systematic border controls, which the SVP demands as a deterrent measure.

The immigration issue, on the other hand, will be decided at the ballot box with the SVP initiative against a Switzerland of 10 million. It is already clear today: neither the FDP nor the Center will shake up the free movement of people within the EU.

When it comes to climate and energy, the nuclear issue is likely to gain momentum thanks to the strengthened SVP. Civilian politicians around FDP national councilor Marcel Dobler (43) and SVP national councilor Christian Imark (41) have launched a nuclear power plant initiative that should also make new nuclear power stations possible. Apparently the necessary signatures have been collected and the initiative should be submitted soon.

Then the negotiating begins. It is quite possible that SVP Energy Minister Albert Rösti (56) will come up with a counter-proposal that will defuse the issue – even though Rösti did not want a debate about a new nuclear power plant in a recent ‘NZZ’ interview.

But even if Peter Hegglin (63), a centrist member of the Council of States, is also on the initiative committee, the centrist party should be wary of unconditionally supporting new nuclear power plants. Ultimately, it was Doris Leuthard (60), a member of the CVP federation, who brought the nuclear phase-out to the attention of the people.

The bourgeoisie has already managed to work together on pensions: they have pushed through the AHV reform and set the retirement age for women at 65. They have also initiated a reform of the pension fund, which they plan to support together when the bill reaches the people next year. Together they will also fight against the trade union initiative for a 13th AHV pension.

In fact, they also agree that the retirement age should be adjusted to life expectancy. The only question is: when, how and at what price? After the narrow-minded yes to the AHV reform, the center in particular is cautious. She will not support the young liberal pension initiative, which aims to automatically adjust the retirement age to life expectancy.

Instead, Pfister’s party is aiming for an expansion of the AHV: the marriage penalty – that is, the pension ceiling for married people – should be abolished for married couples. The SVP also sympathizes with this. However, it is unlikely that the FDP will participate in this; it is too expensive.

There are numerous ideas on the table to tackle rising healthcare costs. The motto is: “Save, yes, but not with us!” Civil cooperation is therefore mainly limited to the defensive battle against the left-wing premium waiver initiative, which wants to limit the premium burden to ten percent of the household income. A counter-proposal from the Council of States should take the wind out of the sails of the left.

The need for healthcare reform is great. SVP and FDP tend towards restrictions and fewer services. The center advocates a cost brake and wants to strengthen pharmacists and general practitioners, for example. But even when it comes to concrete cost-saving measures, opinions among citizens differ. A big hit is coming.

Things can happen quickly after the elections. Foreign Minister Ignazio Cassis (62) is expected to present the negotiating mandate with the European Union soon. The only question that remains is whether he will wait until federal councilor Alain Berset (52) is chosen as his replacement, or take office immediately. The cantons and the foreign policy committee must then be consulted and negotiations can begin.

But even in the new parliament, the fronts remain hardened. The SVP will probably reject a framework agreement in principle. A compromise solution seems unthinkable, especially if the EU remains stubborn on open issues such as the EU Citizens Directive.