The Blick analysis of Berset’s resignation: the hat goes – what comes next

Glattli to Trede

The Greens had been informed in advance of Berset’s departure — at least they had enough time to prepare a press release pledging to run in the December 13 Federal Council elections — thus reminding themselves.

It is unclear whether they will actually compete with the SP. Party leader Balthasar Glättli (51) would not want to mess with the SP. Group leader Aline Trede (39), however, had already urged the comrades for a trouser pocket when Simonetta Sommaruga (63) resigned. If the Greens do not lose the October 22 general election as predicted, the Trede faction could emerge victorious. But exactly: the election forecasts see the Greens on the losing side and the SP on the winning side.

German-Swiss men are currently the focus for Berset’s successor. We are talking about Jon Pult (38) from Graubünden, Matthias Aebischer (55) from Bern and Beat Jans (58), member of the Basel government. State Councilor Daniel Jositsch (58) has made himself so unpopular with his wild candidacy for the Sommaruga successor that his chances of a ticket are small. However, it would be good if the SP takes care of two women. For example, various names such as Flavia Wasserfallen (44) are also mentioned.

GLP hopes for ten percent

If, as expected, the Green-Liberals gain ground in the elections, they too can run in December. Party leader Jürg Grossen (53) says: “If the GLP gets more than ten percent of the voter share and we win a seat in the Council of States at the same time, then we will make a claim.”

If not, the GLP will make it dependent on the election results of the Greens and the SP who it supports in the autumn. “As of today, the Greens are entitled to a seat in the Bundesrat.”

SVP and FDP for concordance, center hold

It sounds different with SVP party leader Thomas Aeschi (44). “We abide by the concordance.” If the SP remains the second strongest party or falls to third place, it is still entitled to two seats. FDP leader Thierry Burkart (47) also emphasizes: “We stick to the magic formula.” It states that the three largest parties each get two seats and the fourth strongest one seat, the SP is now entitled to two seats.

Mitte group chairman Philipp Matthias Bregy (44) cannot look at the cards. For him, general elections are always a time to check whether the distribution of seats is still justified. But he also wants to wait for the elections – and that’s right: the starting position for the SP is better and the showing of possible candidates for the Bundesrat also helps.

So there is a good chance that the chair is occupied by a Swiss-German comrade.

Another romance coming up?

However, it is still uncertain whether all Bundesrat members will stand for re-election or whether, for example, Guy Parmelin (63) will also leave. If he retires as second Romand, the cards are reshuffled. In this case, Swiss SP candidates could suddenly also be eligible for Berset’s successor – such as Roger Nordmann (50), still party chairman.

With a second resignation in December, the division of departments could also become more tense. As of today, Ignazio Cassis (62) would have ambitions to take over the Department of the Interior (EDI). But in the EDI, there will be tough votes on retirement in 2024. Even if the EDI is a key department, does Cassis or any other sitting federal councilor want to do this to themselves? Rather not.

It is therefore likely that the EDI will remain in the hands of SP. It cannot be ruled out that the qualified social worker Elisabeth Baume-Schneider (59) will move there. If not, the new person should lead the EDI.